**Forecast consensus from MetService and international models points to a maximum of 14°C in Wellington on June 18, 2026, under mild winter conditions typical for the region.** Wellington’s June climatology shows average daily highs near 13°C, with rare excursions above 16°C. Current model runs align on a peak of 14°C amid light northerly flow, limited cloud cover, and stable pressure patterns that prevent significant warming or cooling. Recent days have recorded similar maxima (12–16°C), reinforcing the tight clustering around 14°C in the market. This 94% implied probability reflects traders’ assessment of low forecast uncertainty on resolution day. A realistic challenge would require a rapid shift in steering flow or unanticipated insolation that pushes the observed high to 15°C or higher, though model agreement and seasonal norms make such an outcome unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on June 18?
Highest temperature in Wellington on June 18?
14°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$70,372 Vol.
$70,372 Vol.
Jun 18, 2026
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$70,372 Vol.
$70,372 Vol.
Jun 18, 2026
8°C or below
$300 Vol.
No
9°C
$256 Vol.
No
10°C
$594 Vol.
No
11°C
$954 Vol.
No
12°C
$2,676 Vol.
No
13°C
$7,790 Vol.
No
14°C
$25,283 Vol.
Yes
15°C
$12,918 Vol.
No
16°C
$10,939 Vol.
No
17°C
$7,003 Vol.
No
18°C or higher
$1,658 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from MetService and international models points to a maximum of 14°C in Wellington on June 18, 2026, under mild winter conditions typical for the region.**
Wellington’s June climatology shows average daily highs near 13°C, with rare excursions above 16°C. Current model runs align on a peak of 14°C amid light northerly flow, limited cloud cover, and stable pressure patterns that prevent significant warming or cooling. Recent days have recorded similar maxima (12–16°C), reinforcing the tight clustering around 14°C in the market.
This 94% implied probability reflects traders’ assessment of low forecast uncertainty on resolution day. A realistic challenge would require a rapid shift in steering flow or unanticipated insolation that pushes the observed high to 15°C or higher, though model agreement and seasonal norms make such an outcome unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 16, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$70,372End Date
Jun 18, 2026Market Opened
Jun 16, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from MetService and international models points to a maximum of 14°C in Wellington on June 18, 2026, under mild winter conditions typical for the region.**
Wellington’s June climatology shows average daily highs near 13°C, with rare excursions above 16°C. Current model runs align on a peak of 14°C amid light northerly flow, limited cloud cover, and stable pressure patterns that prevent significant warming or cooling. Recent days have recorded similar maxima (12–16°C), reinforcing the tight clustering around 14°C in the market.
This 94% implied probability reflects traders’ assessment of low forecast uncertainty on resolution day. A realistic challenge would require a rapid shift in steering flow or unanticipated insolation that pushes the observed high to 15°C or higher, though model agreement and seasonal norms make such an outcome unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$70,372End Date
Jun 18, 2026Market Opened
Jun 16, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Forecast consensus from MetService and international models points to a maximum of 14°C in Wellington on June 18, 2026, under mild winter conditions typical for the region.** Wellington’s June climatology shows average daily highs near 13°C, with rare excursions above 16°C. Current model runs align on a peak of 14°C amid light northerly flow, limited cloud cover, and stable pressure patterns that prevent significant warming or cooling. Recent days have recorded similar maxima (12–16°C), reinforcing the tight clustering around 14°C in the market. This 94% implied probability reflects traders’ assessment of low forecast uncertainty on resolution day. A realistic challenge would require a rapid shift in steering flow or unanticipated insolation that pushes the observed high to 15°C or higher, though model agreement and seasonal norms make such an outcome unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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