MetService's latest observations and forecast from Wellington International Airport station confirm a daytime high of 16°C on May 2, 2026, under fine skies with developing northerlies and high pressure dominance, anchoring trader consensus at 100% implied probability for this outcome. Current readings peaked at this level midday amid light winds and stable atmospheric conditions typical for early May, aligning with historical averages of 15–16°C for the region and model consensus showing no rapid intensification potential. While inherent forecast uncertainty exists—such as unexpected downslope warming from foehn effects—late-day cooling trends and northerly easing make higher temperatures improbable, solidifying market positioning ahead of final evening measurements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on May 2?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 2?
16°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$65,399 Vol.
$65,399 Vol.
May 2, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$65,399 Vol.
$65,399 Vol.
May 2, 2026
10°C or below
$2,061 Vol.
No
11°C
$798 Vol.
No
12°C
$3,791 Vol.
No
13°C
$2,957 Vol.
No
14°C
$4,100 Vol.
No
15°C
$8,407 Vol.
No
16°C
$12,830 Vol.
Yes
17°C
$9,094 Vol.
No
18°C
$8,542 Vol.
No
19°C
$7,235 Vol.
No
20°C or higher
$5,584 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.MetService's latest observations and forecast from Wellington International Airport station confirm a daytime high of 16°C on May 2, 2026, under fine skies with developing northerlies and high pressure dominance, anchoring trader consensus at 100% implied probability for this outcome. Current readings peaked at this level midday amid light winds and stable atmospheric conditions typical for early May, aligning with historical averages of 15–16°C for the region and model consensus showing no rapid intensification potential. While inherent forecast uncertainty exists—such as unexpected downslope warming from foehn effects—late-day cooling trends and northerly easing make higher temperatures improbable, solidifying market positioning ahead of final evening measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$65,399End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.MetService's latest observations and forecast from Wellington International Airport station confirm a daytime high of 16°C on May 2, 2026, under fine skies with developing northerlies and high pressure dominance, anchoring trader consensus at 100% implied probability for this outcome. Current readings peaked at this level midday amid light winds and stable atmospheric conditions typical for early May, aligning with historical averages of 15–16°C for the region and model consensus showing no rapid intensification potential. While inherent forecast uncertainty exists—such as unexpected downslope warming from foehn effects—late-day cooling trends and northerly easing make higher temperatures improbable, solidifying market positioning ahead of final evening measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$65,399End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
MetService's latest observations and forecast from Wellington International Airport station confirm a daytime high of 16°C on May 2, 2026, under fine skies with developing northerlies and high pressure dominance, anchoring trader consensus at 100% implied probability for this outcome. Current readings peaked at this level midday amid light winds and stable atmospheric conditions typical for early May, aligning with historical averages of 15–16°C for the region and model consensus showing no rapid intensification potential. While inherent forecast uncertainty exists—such as unexpected downslope warming from foehn effects—late-day cooling trends and northerly easing make higher temperatures improbable, solidifying market positioning ahead of final evening measurements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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