Recent analyst upgrades, particularly Goldman Sachs lifting its Q2 2026 Tesla delivery forecast to 420,000 vehicles from 405,000, have anchored trader sentiment around the closely matched 425k–450k and 450k–475k bins. The revision cites stronger regional sales data from China, the U.S., and Europe tracking ahead of the prior ~400k consensus. This follows Q1’s reported 358,023 deliveries and reflects Tesla’s production capacity exceeding 408,000 units, potential inventory drawdown, and EV demand stabilization despite competitive pressures. Traders appear to weigh these positive signals against ongoing market uncertainties, positioning the official July report as the key resolution catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated475k+ 99.6%
<300k <1%
300k–325k <1%
325k–350k <1%
$506,715 Vol.
$506,715 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<300k
No
300k–325k
No
325k–350k
No
350k–375k
No
375k–400k
No
400k–425k
No
425k–450k
No
450k–475k
No
475k+
Yes
475k+ 99.6%
<300k <1%
300k–325k <1%
325k–350k <1%
$506,715 Vol.
$506,715 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<300k
$20,810 Vol.
No
300k–325k
$18,501 Vol.
No
325k–350k
$10,616 Vol.
No
350k–375k
$26,034 Vol.
No
375k–400k
$30,611 Vol.
No
400k–425k
$59,123 Vol.
No
425k–450k
$51,448 Vol.
No
450k–475k
$51,757 Vol.
No
475k+
$237,814 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Recent analyst upgrades, particularly Goldman Sachs lifting its Q2 2026 Tesla delivery forecast to 420,000 vehicles from 405,000, have anchored trader sentiment around the closely matched 425k–450k and 450k–475k bins. The revision cites stronger regional sales data from China, the U.S., and Europe tracking ahead of the prior ~400k consensus. This follows Q1’s reported 358,023 deliveries and reflects Tesla’s production capacity exceeding 408,000 units, potential inventory drawdown, and EV demand stabilization despite competitive pressures. Traders appear to weigh these positive signals against ongoing market uncertainties, positioning the official July report as the key resolution catalyst.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Market Opened: Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ET
Volume
$506,715End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Recent analyst upgrades, particularly Goldman Sachs lifting its Q2 2026 Tesla delivery forecast to 420,000 vehicles from 405,000, have anchored trader sentiment around the closely matched 425k–450k and 450k–475k bins. The revision cites stronger regional sales data from China, the U.S., and Europe tracking ahead of the prior ~400k consensus. This follows Q1’s reported 358,023 deliveries and reflects Tesla’s production capacity exceeding 408,000 units, potential inventory drawdown, and EV demand stabilization despite competitive pressures. Traders appear to weigh these positive signals against ongoing market uncertainties, positioning the official July report as the key resolution catalyst.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Volume
$506,715End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent analyst upgrades, particularly Goldman Sachs lifting its Q2 2026 Tesla delivery forecast to 420,000 vehicles from 405,000, have anchored trader sentiment around the closely matched 425k–450k and 450k–475k bins. The revision cites stronger regional sales data from China, the U.S., and Europe tracking ahead of the prior ~400k consensus. This follows Q1’s reported 358,023 deliveries and reflects Tesla’s production capacity exceeding 408,000 units, potential inventory drawdown, and EV demand stabilization despite competitive pressures. Traders appear to weigh these positive signals against ongoing market uncertainties, positioning the official July report as the key resolution catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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