The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, in place since April 8, 2026, following Pakistan-mediated talks amid the broader conflict over Iran's nuclear and missile programs, remains the central factor shaping trader views. Intermittent violations, including clashes near the Strait of Hormuz, have kept tensions elevated, with President Trump describing the truce as on "life support" in May after rejecting an Iranian counterproposal. Recent negotiator-level progress toward a 60-day extension, reopening of the Strait, and renewed nuclear discussions has emerged in late May, though Iranian officials state a final agreement is not imminent and US approval is pending. Both sides continue military posturing and diplomatic exchanges, with no firm timeline for comprehensive resolution and risks of escalation tied to Hormuz access or proxy activities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUnconfirmed reports of U.S. drones over Iranian territory
June 7 jumps to 81%11%
A rumor circulated that U.S. drones had entered Iranian airspace; no confirmation followed, but the market briefly dipped before recovering as no kinetic strike was verified.
US Central Command says it launched self-defense strikes against Iranian missile launch sites and boats
May 26 plunges to 3%95%
The US military conducted 'self-defense' strikes in southern Iran targeting missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to lay mines, which the market interpreted as a violation of the fragile ceasefire.
US and Iran develop ceasefire extension framework
May 24 dips to 98%1%
The US and Iran reached a memorandum of understanding framework extending the ceasefire 60 days, signaling progress toward a long-term peace deal.
US and Iran develop framework to extend ceasefire 60 days and reopen Strait of Hormuz
May 31 surges to 87%35%
On May 24, the US and Iran developed a memorandum of understanding framework to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and to de-mine and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, significantly boosting market confidence that the ceasefire would hold through late May and early June.
US and Iran near final deal to end war and reopen Strait of Hormuz
May 31 surges to 90%38%
Reports emerged that the US and Iran were close to a final deal to end the war, including lifting the blockade and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which further increased market optimism about the ceasefire holding through late May and early June.
US and Iran develop framework to extend ceasefire 60 days and reopen Strait of Hormuz
May 24 surges to 100%30%
The US and Iran reached a memorandum of understanding framework to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and agreed on plans to de-mine and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a major diplomatic breakthrough. This news caused a sharp rise in market prices for all ceasefire continuation dates, reflecting increased confidence in the ceasefire's durability.
Rubio says deal could achieve completely open Strait of Hormuz without tolls
May 31 surges to 87%16%
The Guardian reported Rubio’s statement that a successful deal would “completely open” the Strait without tolls, further convincing traders that the cease‑fire extension was near certainty.
Axios: Proposed U.S.–Iran deal includes 60‑day cease‑fire and Hormuz reopening
June 7 surges to 79%28%
Axios reported that the pending deal would keep the cease‑fire in place for 60 days while reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The report confirmed earlier diplomatic statements and drove the market’s final push toward the June 7 outcome, lifting the price close to 80 %.
U.S. Navy exchanges fire with Iranian forces in Strait of Hormuz
May 28 jumps to 91%6%
U.S. naval vessels reported exchanging fire with Iranian forces in the Strait, but no ground kinetic action occurred; the episode caused a short‑term dip before the market recovered as diplomatic talks continued.
Iran says U.S. and Tehran are in final stage of cease‑fire talks
May 25 surges to 96%43%
Iran’s foreign‑ ministry spokesman said the two sides were in the “final stage” of drafting a memorandum and that both parties were moving “closer” to a solution. The declaration of imminent progress boosted confidence that the cease‑fire would hold through early June, pushing prices for the May 25, 26 and 27 outcomes toward the high‑90s.
US and Iran officials signal progress toward ceasefire extension amid fragile peace
May 25 surges to 99%46%
Officials from both the US and Iran indicated signs of moving closer to an agreement to extend the ceasefire, which bolstered market confidence that the ceasefire would hold through May 25 and beyond. This news contributed to a significant price increase in the market for the May 25 and May 26 outcomes.
US and Iran signal progress toward ceasefire extension and reopening Strait of Hormuz
May 25 surges to 92%39%
Officials from both the US and Iran indicated signs of moving closer to an agreement to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which increased market optimism and prices for ceasefire continuation through May 25 and later dates.
Trump says Iran ceasefire deal in final stages, to be 'announced shortly'
May 24 dips to 98%1%
President Trump indicated that negotiations to extend the ceasefire were in the final stages, signaling renewed diplomatic momentum toward a peace agreement.
US, Iran, Pakistan near deal to extend ceasefire by 60 days with nuclear framework
May 23 surges to 97%27%
Financial Times reported that mediators were nearing a deal to extend the US-Iran ceasefire by 60 days and establish nuclear talks, boosting market confidence in the ceasefire's continuation.
Trump signals ceasefire extension by 60 days with nuclear talks to follow
May 23 surges to 98%28%
President Trump indicated that negotiations were in the final stages of extending the ceasefire by 60 days, with a framework for broader negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. This significant diplomatic progress boosted market confidence.
US President Trump announces final stages of ceasefire extension negotiations
May 23 surges to 100%30%
President Trump stated on May 23 that the US was in the final stages of negotiations to extend the ceasefire with Iran, boosting market confidence that the ceasefire would continue through May 23 and beyond. This announcement helped push the market price to 100% Yes for May 23.
US Secretary of State Rubio expresses cautious optimism on Iran ceasefire talks
May 24 surges to 98%28%
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed cautious optimism about progress in negotiations with Iran, reinforcing market confidence that the ceasefire would hold through May 24 and later dates.
Reports indicate ceasefire extension between US and Iran likely by 60 days
May 25 surges to 97%44%
Mediators were reportedly close to securing an agreement to extend the ceasefire by 60 days, with a framework for broader nuclear negotiations, further supporting market prices for the ceasefire continuing through May 25 and beyond.
US and Iran in final stages of ceasefire extension negotiations, Trump says deal imminent
May 23 surges to 100%30%
On May 23, President Trump announced that the United States was in the final stages of negotiations to extend the ceasefire with Iran, signaling a high likelihood of continuation. This statement boosted market confidence, reflected in the sharp price increases for ceasefire continuation through May 23 and beyond.
Mediators close to securing 60-day US-Iran ceasefire extension with nuclear talks framework
May 24 surges to 97%27%
Reports on May 23 indicated that mediators, including Pakistan, were close to securing an agreement to extend the US-Iran ceasefire by 60 days and establish a framework for broader nuclear negotiations. This development increased market optimism for the ceasefire holding through later dates such as May 24 and May 25.
Trump claims Iran ceasefire deal largely negotiated with Strait of Hormuz reopening
May 24 surges to 97%27%
On May 23, President Trump stated that the ceasefire deal with Iran was largely negotiated and would be announced shortly, including provisions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without tolls during the ceasefire extension. This positive diplomatic signal contributed to the market's rising confidence in the ceasefire's continuation.
Iranian negotiators emphasize no compromise on national rights amid ceasefire talks
May 24 surges to 97%27%
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf met with Pakistan’s Army Chief on May 23, stating Iran would not compromise on its national rights and that its armed forces had rebuilt capabilities during the ceasefire. This firm stance indicated ongoing tensions but did not derail ceasefire talks, supporting market confidence in the ceasefire holding.
Iran and U.S. officials signal progress as cease‑fire hangs in balance
May 24 surges to 100%22%
A New York Times article highlighted that both sides were “moving closer to an agreement,” reinforcing market optimism and pushing Yes‑probabilities higher for dates after May 23.
Trump says Iran deal reopening Strait of Hormuz ‘largely negotiated,’ will be announced soon
May 23 surges to 98%28%
CNBC noted that a fragile cease‑fire has held since April 8 despite skirmishes, emphasizing that both sides remained “largely negotiated” on reopening Hormuz, which steadied the market.
U.S. and Iran ready to sign 60‑day cease‑fire extension framework
May 24 surges to 96%39%
U.S. officials announced that a memorandum‑of‑understanding framework was ready, extending the cease‑fire for 60 days and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The news reassured traders that the cease‑fire would survive at least through the end of May, causing a steep rise in the May 24 and 25 prices.
US President Trump announces final stages of ceasefire extension negotiations with Iran
May 23 surges to 100%30%
President Trump stated that the United States was in the final stages of negotiations to extend the ceasefire with Iran, increasing market optimism for the ceasefire continuing through May 23 and beyond.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid rising Strait of Hormuz tensions
May 24 surges to 90%20%
The US military struck two Iranian oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz after exchanges of fire, raising doubts about the ceasefire. However, no official confirmation of US kinetic military action on Iranian soil was reported, so the market remained confident the ceasefire would hold through May 24.
President Trump announces US in final stages of Iran ceasefire extension talks
May 24 surges to 86%16%
On May 22, President Trump stated that the United States was in the final stages of negotiations to extend the ceasefire with Iran, signaling progress and increasing market confidence that the ceasefire would continue through May 24 and beyond.
U.S. and Iran develop MOU to extend cease‑fire 60 days and reopen Hormuz
May 25 surges to 98%45%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding that would extend the cease‑fire by 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pushing price for later dates toward 100 %.
Pakistani Army Chief visits Tehran to expedite US-Iran ceasefire talks
May 22 surges to 100%18%
On May 22, Pakistani Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir arrived in Tehran to accelerate negotiations between the US and Iran, signaling active diplomatic engagement to maintain the ceasefire. This visit contributed to increased market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 22, reflected in the price rising from 82% to 100%.
Iran’s top diplomat returns to Pakistan amid ongoing ceasefire talks
May 22 jumps to 95%13%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue efforts to reignite ceasefire negotiations with the US, while President Trump suggested talks could occur by phone. This sustained diplomatic engagement supported market optimism for the ceasefire holding through May 22.
Trump warns blockade stays until cease‑fire deal signed
May 24 surges to 98%28%
Trump publicly reiterated that the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports would remain in force until a signed agreement is reached, signalling no imminent kinetic action and reinforcing market optimism for a continued cease‑fire.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
May 22 rises to 94%4%
President Trump publicly expressed dissatisfaction with Iran’s latest peace proposal, injecting some uncertainty into the negotiations but not indicating a breakdown of the ceasefire, which kept market confidence high for May 22 and beyond.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
May 22 jumps to 99%5%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers after exchanges of fire, escalating tensions but not constituting a kinetic strike on Iranian soil, thus not officially ending the ceasefire. This event caused some market volatility but confidence remained high.
Secretary Rubio says Iranian toll plan for Hormuz would break deal
May 28 surges to 87%34%
Secretary of State Rubio publicly rejected Iran’s proposal for a toll‑based Hormuz control, emphasizing U.S. commitment to a free strait. The firm stance reinforced expectations that the cease‑fire would not be tied to Iranian conditions, nudging the market upward for the later‑dated outcomes (May 28–June 7).
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid renewed ceasefire talks
May 21 jumps to 97%8%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue diplomatic efforts to extend the US-Iran ceasefire, signaling ongoing negotiations and raising market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 21 and May 22.
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 22 jumps to 90%8%
The US Navy seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to breach the blockade, raising tensions but not causing a confirmed kinetic strike on Iranian soil, thus not breaking the ceasefire. This event introduced some uncertainty but did not derail ceasefire expectations.
Pakistan intensifies mediation efforts between US and Iran amid ceasefire
May 22 jumps to 92%13%
Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi traveled to Tehran for talks with Iranian officials to continue mediation efforts, signaling active diplomatic engagement to maintain the ceasefire. This bolstered market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 22.
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials to arrange more US-Iran talks before ceasefire ends
May 21 jumps to 97%8%
Pakistan's army chief met with Iran's foreign minister in Tehran to facilitate a second round of US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expiration. This diplomatic move increased market confidence that the ceasefire would continue through May 21.
Trump, Erdogan discuss extending U.S.–Iran cease‑fire
May 23 surges to 87%17%
President Trump spoke with Turkish President Erdogan, who welcomed an extension of the U.S.–Iran cease‑fire and said the remaining issues could be resolved. The endorsement from a regional ally lifted market confidence that the cease‑fire would stay in place at least through late May, pushing the price for the May 23, 24 and 25 outcomes sharply upward.
Trump says US in final stages of cease‑fire extension talks with Iran
May 23 surges to 87%17%
The White House announced that the United States was in “final stages” of negotiations to extend the April‑8 cease‑fire with Iran, raising confidence that the truce would continue at least through the end of May. Prices for all dates jumped sharply after the announcement.
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid ceasefire talks
May 20 rises to 100%3%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire extension with the US, signaling ongoing negotiations despite earlier confusion. This bolstered market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 20.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi returns to Pakistan amid ceasefire talks
May 20 rises to 100%3%
Iran’s top diplomat Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue ceasefire negotiations with the US, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement that supported market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 20.
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