The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, brokered in early April 2026 and extended without a firm deadline, remains the central driver of trader sentiment amid intermittent violations and stalled negotiations. Tensions center on Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missile capabilities, and control over the Strait of Hormuz, where a US naval blockade continues despite limited maritime traffic. Recent diplomatic exchanges via Pakistan have produced Iranian proposals for a permanent end to hostilities alongside demands for sanctions relief, while the United States seeks interim deals with verifiable concessions; however, both sides have rejected key terms. Separate arrangements cover Lebanon and Hezbollah activity, yet cross-border incidents persist. Upcoming milestones include potential follow-up talks and any escalation tied to unresolved economic or security demands, leaving the ceasefire's duration highly sensitive to these diplomatic and military developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
$128,534 Vol.
May 20
95%
May 21
90%
May 22
79%
May 24
67%
May 27
62%
May 31
52%
June 7
40%
June 15
37%
June 30
34%
July 31
30%
December 31
24%
$128,534 Vol.
May 20
$25,967 Vol.
95%
May 21
$36,516 Vol.
90%
May 22
$17,832 Vol.
79%
May 24
$13,493 Vol.
67%
May 27
$11,493 Vol.
62%
May 31
$2,635 Vol.
52%
June 7
$3,435 Vol.
40%
June 15
$3,683 Vol.
37%
June 30
$1,876 Vol.
34%
July 31
$5,856 Vol.
30%
December 31
$6,349 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, brokered in early April 2026 and extended without a firm deadline, remains the central driver of trader sentiment amid intermittent violations and stalled negotiations. Tensions center on Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missile capabilities, and control over the Strait of Hormuz, where a US naval blockade continues despite limited maritime traffic. Recent diplomatic exchanges via Pakistan have produced Iranian proposals for a permanent end to hostilities alongside demands for sanctions relief, while the United States seeks interim deals with verifiable concessions; however, both sides have rejected key terms. Separate arrangements cover Lebanon and Hezbollah activity, yet cross-border incidents persist. Upcoming milestones include potential follow-up talks and any escalation tied to unresolved economic or security demands, leaving the ceasefire's duration highly sensitive to these diplomatic and military developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ET
Volume
$128,534Market Opened
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, brokered in early April 2026 and extended without a firm deadline, remains the central driver of trader sentiment amid intermittent violations and stalled negotiations. Tensions center on Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missile capabilities, and control over the Strait of Hormuz, where a US naval blockade continues despite limited maritime traffic. Recent diplomatic exchanges via Pakistan have produced Iranian proposals for a permanent end to hostilities alongside demands for sanctions relief, while the United States seeks interim deals with verifiable concessions; however, both sides have rejected key terms. Separate arrangements cover Lebanon and Hezbollah activity, yet cross-border incidents persist. Upcoming milestones include potential follow-up talks and any escalation tied to unresolved economic or security demands, leaving the ceasefire's duration highly sensitive to these diplomatic and military developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$128,534Market Opened
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, brokered in early April 2026 and extended without a firm deadline, remains the central driver of trader sentiment amid intermittent violations and stalled negotiations. Tensions center on Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missile capabilities, and control over the Strait of Hormuz, where a US naval blockade continues despite limited maritime traffic. Recent diplomatic exchanges via Pakistan have produced Iranian proposals for a permanent end to hostilities alongside demands for sanctions relief, while the United States seeks interim deals with verifiable concessions; however, both sides have rejected key terms. Separate arrangements cover Lebanon and Hezbollah activity, yet cross-border incidents persist. Upcoming milestones include potential follow-up talks and any escalation tied to unresolved economic or security demands, leaving the ceasefire's duration highly sensitive to these diplomatic and military developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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