A fragile two-week US-brokered ceasefire with Iran, effective since April 8 amid the broader 2026 Iran war launched by US-Israel airstrikes on February 28, faces collapse after bilateral US-Iran talks in Islamabad failed around April 12. The IDF Chief of Staff has ordered immediate readiness for renewed hostilities, with Israeli forces preparing drone, missile, or airstrikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and missile arrays pending Washington approval, as President Trump weighs further strikes. No qualifying aerial impacts on Iranian soil have occurred since the truce began, though Pentagon briefings underscore ongoing tensions and US troop casualties. Parallel Israel-Lebanon negotiations aim to contain Hezbollah escalations, but trader consensus reflects uncertainty ahead of the April 21 resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsrael military action against Iran by...?
Israel military action against Iran by...?
$1,670,589 Vol.
Apr 21, 2026
April 14
<1%
April 21
9%
$1,670,589 Vol.
April 14
$1,177,045 Vol.
<1%
April 21
$494,677 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week US-brokered ceasefire with Iran, effective since April 8 amid the broader 2026 Iran war launched by US-Israel airstrikes on February 28, faces collapse after bilateral US-Iran talks in Islamabad failed around April 12. The IDF Chief of Staff has ordered immediate readiness for renewed hostilities, with Israeli forces preparing drone, missile, or airstrikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and missile arrays pending Washington approval, as President Trump weighs further strikes. No qualifying aerial impacts on Iranian soil have occurred since the truce began, though Pentagon briefings underscore ongoing tensions and US troop casualties. Parallel Israel-Lebanon negotiations aim to contain Hezbollah escalations, but trader consensus reflects uncertainty ahead of the April 21 resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Volume
$1,670,589End Date
Apr 21, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week US-brokered ceasefire with Iran, effective since April 8 amid the broader 2026 Iran war launched by US-Israel airstrikes on February 28, faces collapse after bilateral US-Iran talks in Islamabad failed around April 12. The IDF Chief of Staff has ordered immediate readiness for renewed hostilities, with Israeli forces preparing drone, missile, or airstrikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and missile arrays pending Washington approval, as President Trump weighs further strikes. No qualifying aerial impacts on Iranian soil have occurred since the truce began, though Pentagon briefings underscore ongoing tensions and US troop casualties. Parallel Israel-Lebanon negotiations aim to contain Hezbollah escalations, but trader consensus reflects uncertainty ahead of the April 21 resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$1,670,589End Date
Apr 21, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week US-brokered ceasefire with Iran, effective since April 8 amid the broader 2026 Iran war launched by US-Israel airstrikes on February 28, faces collapse after bilateral US-Iran talks in Islamabad failed around April 12. The IDF Chief of Staff has ordered immediate readiness for renewed hostilities, with Israeli forces preparing drone, missile, or airstrikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and missile arrays pending Washington approval, as President Trump weighs further strikes. No qualifying aerial impacts on Iranian soil have occurred since the truce began, though Pentagon briefings underscore ongoing tensions and US troop casualties. Parallel Israel-Lebanon negotiations aim to contain Hezbollah escalations, but trader consensus reflects uncertainty ahead of the April 21 resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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