A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran, agreed on April 8 following over five weeks of intense airstrikes, missile barrages, and US/Israeli operations targeting Iranian military sites, missile arrays, and infrastructure since late February, remains in effect with no reported direct violations as of April 16. US naval blockade of Iranian ports, now in its third day, adds economic pressure while diplomatic efforts— including failed Islamabad talks and ongoing US-mediated negotiations for a framework agreement—aim to extend the pause before it expires around April 22. Israel has shifted focus to intensified operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon amid separate direct talks, reducing immediate escalation risks against Iran despite earlier preparations for potential strikes on energy facilities. Trader consensus reflects de-escalation signals and institutional barriers to resumption pending talks outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsrael military action against Iran by...?
Israel military action against Iran by...?
$1,673,336 Vol.
Apr 21, 2026
April 14
<1%
April 21
9%
$1,673,336 Vol.
April 14
$1,177,062 Vol.
<1%
April 21
$496,673 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran, agreed on April 8 following over five weeks of intense airstrikes, missile barrages, and US/Israeli operations targeting Iranian military sites, missile arrays, and infrastructure since late February, remains in effect with no reported direct violations as of April 16. US naval blockade of Iranian ports, now in its third day, adds economic pressure while diplomatic efforts— including failed Islamabad talks and ongoing US-mediated negotiations for a framework agreement—aim to extend the pause before it expires around April 22. Israel has shifted focus to intensified operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon amid separate direct talks, reducing immediate escalation risks against Iran despite earlier preparations for potential strikes on energy facilities. Trader consensus reflects de-escalation signals and institutional barriers to resumption pending talks outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Volume
$1,673,336End Date
Apr 21, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran, agreed on April 8 following over five weeks of intense airstrikes, missile barrages, and US/Israeli operations targeting Iranian military sites, missile arrays, and infrastructure since late February, remains in effect with no reported direct violations as of April 16. US naval blockade of Iranian ports, now in its third day, adds economic pressure while diplomatic efforts— including failed Islamabad talks and ongoing US-mediated negotiations for a framework agreement—aim to extend the pause before it expires around April 22. Israel has shifted focus to intensified operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon amid separate direct talks, reducing immediate escalation risks against Iran despite earlier preparations for potential strikes on energy facilities. Trader consensus reflects de-escalation signals and institutional barriers to resumption pending talks outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$1,673,336End Date
Apr 21, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran, agreed on April 8 following over five weeks of intense airstrikes, missile barrages, and US/Israeli operations targeting Iranian military sites, missile arrays, and infrastructure since late February, remains in effect with no reported direct violations as of April 16. US naval blockade of Iranian ports, now in its third day, adds economic pressure while diplomatic efforts— including failed Islamabad talks and ongoing US-mediated negotiations for a framework agreement—aim to extend the pause before it expires around April 22. Israel has shifted focus to intensified operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon amid separate direct talks, reducing immediate escalation risks against Iran despite earlier preparations for potential strikes on energy facilities. Trader consensus reflects de-escalation signals and institutional barriers to resumption pending talks outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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