Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin race for La Paz governor between Luis Antonio Revilla of Soberanía (39.1%) and Félix Patzi of MIP (37.7%), driven by fragmented support amid Bolivia's MAS party divisions and indigenous Aymara voter priorities on autonomy and resources. Recent polls from Ciesmori and other firms show them within 2-5 points, with undecideds at 10-15%, keeping odds tight due to La Paz's history of close departmental contests and low historical turnout volatility. Separation could emerge from final pre-election surveys, last-minute endorsements by national figures like President Arce, or weather impacts on rural polling stations, as the March vote nears amid economic pressures from lithium disputes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedLa Paz Governor Election Winner (Bolivia)
La Paz Governor Election Winner (Bolivia)
Luis Antonio Revilla 39.1%
Felix Patzi 37.2%
René Yahuasi Calamani 13.7%
Richard Andrés Gómez 6.6%
$21,205 Vol.
$21,205 Vol.
Luis Antonio Revilla
39%
Felix Patzi
37%
René Yahuasi Calamani
14%
Richard Andrés Gómez
7%
Santos Quispe Quispe
5%
Ingvar Ellefsen Dotzauer
1%
Demetrio Villca
1%
Gualberto Cusi
1%
Rafael Quispe Flores
<1%
Augusto Saturnino Oblitas
<1%
Orlando Callisaya
<1%
Germán Riveros
<1%
Clemente Gutiérrez
<1%
Fidel Chura
<1%
Leopoldo Richar Chui
<1%
Luis Antonio Revilla 39.1%
Felix Patzi 37.2%
René Yahuasi Calamani 13.7%
Richard Andrés Gómez 6.6%
$21,205 Vol.
$21,205 Vol.
Luis Antonio Revilla
39%
Felix Patzi
37%
René Yahuasi Calamani
14%
Richard Andrés Gómez
7%
Santos Quispe Quispe
5%
Ingvar Ellefsen Dotzauer
1%
Demetrio Villca
1%
Gualberto Cusi
1%
Rafael Quispe Flores
<1%
Augusto Saturnino Oblitas
<1%
Orlando Callisaya
<1%
Germán Riveros
<1%
Clemente Gutiérrez
<1%
Fidel Chura
<1%
Leopoldo Richar Chui
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Market Opened: Jan 20, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin race for La Paz governor between Luis Antonio Revilla of Soberanía (39.1%) and Félix Patzi of MIP (37.7%), driven by fragmented support amid Bolivia's MAS party divisions and indigenous Aymara voter priorities on autonomy and resources. Recent polls from Ciesmori and other firms show them within 2-5 points, with undecideds at 10-15%, keeping odds tight due to La Paz's history of close departmental contests and low historical turnout volatility. Separation could emerge from final pre-election surveys, last-minute endorsements by national figures like President Arce, or weather impacts on rural polling stations, as the March vote nears amid economic pressures from lithium disputes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated


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