Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors César Dockweiler at 56.7% implied probability to win Bolivia's La Paz mayoral election, driven by his commanding leads in multiple recent polls averaging 40-45% support for the Creemos opposition candidate. Miguel Roca of the ruling MAS party trails at around 20-25% in surveys, hampered by national party fatigue amid economic woes, while Jhonny Plata garners 10-15% as an independent appealing to urban voters. A fresh Ipsos poll last week widened Dockweiler's edge to 42% over Roca's 22%, boosted by strong youth turnout projections and anti-incumbent momentum from campaign rallies. Upcoming debates could shift dynamics ahead of the March vote, but current pricing reflects poll stability and historical opposition gains in La Paz.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedLa Paz Mayoral Election Winner (Bolivia)
La Paz Mayoral Election Winner (Bolivia)
César Dockweiler 57.6%
Miguel Roca 13.4%
Jhonny Plata 10.0%
Waldo Albarracín 7.8%
$1,715,087 Vol.
$1,715,087 Vol.

César Dockweiler
58%

Miguel Roca
13%

Jhonny Plata
10%

Waldo Albarracín
8%

Iván Arias
4%

Xavier Iturralde
3%

Carlos Eduardo Palenque
2%

Paul Coca
2%

Rodrigo Rivera
1%

Alejandro Reyes
1%

Óscar Sogliano
<1%

Pierre Chain
<1%
César Dockweiler 57.6%
Miguel Roca 13.4%
Jhonny Plata 10.0%
Waldo Albarracín 7.8%
$1,715,087 Vol.
$1,715,087 Vol.

César Dockweiler
58%

Miguel Roca
13%

Jhonny Plata
10%

Waldo Albarracín
8%

Iván Arias
4%

Xavier Iturralde
3%

Carlos Eduardo Palenque
2%

Paul Coca
2%

Rodrigo Rivera
1%

Alejandro Reyes
1%

Óscar Sogliano
<1%

Pierre Chain
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors César Dockweiler at 56.7% implied probability to win Bolivia's La Paz mayoral election, driven by his commanding leads in multiple recent polls averaging 40-45% support for the Creemos opposition candidate. Miguel Roca of the ruling MAS party trails at around 20-25% in surveys, hampered by national party fatigue amid economic woes, while Jhonny Plata garners 10-15% as an independent appealing to urban voters. A fresh Ipsos poll last week widened Dockweiler's edge to 42% over Roca's 22%, boosted by strong youth turnout projections and anti-incumbent momentum from campaign rallies. Upcoming debates could shift dynamics ahead of the March vote, but current pricing reflects poll stability and historical opposition gains in La Paz.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated


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