**Recent cooling from a multi-day storm system across Türkiye has shaped forecasts for Istanbul on August 31, 2026, with most models indicating overnight lows of 19–21°C under clearing skies.** A five-day period of thunderstorms and northerly winds, peaking around August 28–29, lowered temperatures by several degrees from prior heat and introduced cooler maritime air, but the system shifts east by the 30th, allowing high pressure and mostly sunny conditions to return. Scientific factors differentiating the closely bunched market outcomes (17°C or below at 29%, with 20–22°C bins near 25–26%) center on nocturnal radiative cooling, boundary-layer mixing, and local influences. Clear or mostly clear skies after the frontal passage promote efficient longwave radiation loss, while light-to-moderate northerly or northeasterly winds (often 5–15 km/h) can either enhance cooling via advection or limit it through turbulent mixing. Dew-point temperatures around 16–18°C and urban heat-island effects in Istanbul further modulate how far the mercury falls before dawn. Model consensus places the minimum near 19–21°C, consistent with late-August climatology after similar cool-air intrusions, yet two-day forecast uncertainty in exact wind speeds, residual moisture, or subtle cloud cover keeps probabilities spread across the 17–23°C range. Upcoming high-resolution model runs and official Turkish State Meteorological Service updates will likely tighten the distribution as the date approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on August 31?
19°C 50%
27°C or higher 50%
18°C 49%
22°C 37%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
17°C or below
15%
18°C
49%
19°C
50%
20°C
26%
21°C
37%
22°C
37%
23°C
26%
24°C
2%
25°C
8%
26°C
8%
27°C or higher
50%
19°C 50%
27°C or higher 50%
18°C 49%
22°C 37%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
15%
18°C
$0 Vol.
49%
19°C
$0 Vol.
50%
20°C
$0 Vol.
26%
21°C
$0 Vol.
37%
22°C
$0 Vol.
37%
23°C
$0 Vol.
26%
24°C
$0 Vol.
2%
25°C
$0 Vol.
8%
26°C
$0 Vol.
8%
27°C or higher
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent cooling from a multi-day storm system across Türkiye has shaped forecasts for Istanbul on August 31, 2026, with most models indicating overnight lows of 19–21°C under clearing skies.** A five-day period of thunderstorms and northerly winds, peaking around August 28–29, lowered temperatures by several degrees from prior heat and introduced cooler maritime air, but the system shifts east by the 30th, allowing high pressure and mostly sunny conditions to return.
Scientific factors differentiating the closely bunched market outcomes (17°C or below at 29%, with 20–22°C bins near 25–26%) center on nocturnal radiative cooling, boundary-layer mixing, and local influences. Clear or mostly clear skies after the frontal passage promote efficient longwave radiation loss, while light-to-moderate northerly or northeasterly winds (often 5–15 km/h) can either enhance cooling via advection or limit it through turbulent mixing. Dew-point temperatures around 16–18°C and urban heat-island effects in Istanbul further modulate how far the mercury falls before dawn.
Model consensus places the minimum near 19–21°C, consistent with late-August climatology after similar cool-air intrusions, yet two-day forecast uncertainty in exact wind speeds, residual moisture, or subtle cloud cover keeps probabilities spread across the 17–23°C range. Upcoming high-resolution model runs and official Turkish State Meteorological Service updates will likely tighten the distribution as the date approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent cooling from a multi-day storm system across Türkiye has shaped forecasts for Istanbul on August 31, 2026, with most models indicating overnight lows of 19–21°C under clearing skies.** A five-day period of thunderstorms and northerly winds, peaking around August 28–29, lowered temperatures by several degrees from prior heat and introduced cooler maritime air, but the system shifts east by the 30th, allowing high pressure and mostly sunny conditions to return.
Scientific factors differentiating the closely bunched market outcomes (17°C or below at 29%, with 20–22°C bins near 25–26%) center on nocturnal radiative cooling, boundary-layer mixing, and local influences. Clear or mostly clear skies after the frontal passage promote efficient longwave radiation loss, while light-to-moderate northerly or northeasterly winds (often 5–15 km/h) can either enhance cooling via advection or limit it through turbulent mixing. Dew-point temperatures around 16–18°C and urban heat-island effects in Istanbul further modulate how far the mercury falls before dawn.
Model consensus places the minimum near 19–21°C, consistent with late-August climatology after similar cool-air intrusions, yet two-day forecast uncertainty in exact wind speeds, residual moisture, or subtle cloud cover keeps probabilities spread across the 17–23°C range. Upcoming high-resolution model runs and official Turkish State Meteorological Service updates will likely tighten the distribution as the date approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent cooling from a multi-day storm system across Türkiye has shaped forecasts for Istanbul on August 31, 2026, with most models indicating overnight lows of 19–21°C under clearing skies.** A five-day period of thunderstorms and northerly winds, peaking around August 28–29, lowered temperatures by several degrees from prior heat and introduced cooler maritime air, but the system shifts east by the 30th, allowing high pressure and mostly sunny conditions to return. Scientific factors differentiating the closely bunched market outcomes (17°C or below at 29%, with 20–22°C bins near 25–26%) center on nocturnal radiative cooling, boundary-layer mixing, and local influences. Clear or mostly clear skies after the frontal passage promote efficient longwave radiation loss, while light-to-moderate northerly or northeasterly winds (often 5–15 km/h) can either enhance cooling via advection or limit it through turbulent mixing. Dew-point temperatures around 16–18°C and urban heat-island effects in Istanbul further modulate how far the mercury falls before dawn. Model consensus places the minimum near 19–21°C, consistent with late-August climatology after similar cool-air intrusions, yet two-day forecast uncertainty in exact wind speeds, residual moisture, or subtle cloud cover keeps probabilities spread across the 17–23°C range. Upcoming high-resolution model runs and official Turkish State Meteorological Service updates will likely tighten the distribution as the date approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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