Short-term weather model guidance for Jeddah shows considerable spread in projected overnight minimum temperatures for September 14, keeping market-implied odds near 50% across multiple thresholds. Coastal location on the Red Sea introduces variability from humidity, sea breezes, and potential cloud cover that can moderate radiative cooling, while urban heat island effects and wind patterns further influence the diurnal range. Ensemble forecasts from agencies such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA’s GFS exhibit typical uncertainty ranges of 2–4°C at this lead time, with resolution depending on the exact timing of any low-level moisture advection or clearer skies. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Jeddah on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Jeddah on September 14?
25°C or below 100%
35°C or higher 98%
31°C 49%
30°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
25°C or below
100%
26°C
39%
27°C
39%
28°C
39%
29°C
39%
30°C
40%
31°C
49%
32°C
39%
33°C
39%
34°C
39%
35°C or higher
98%
25°C or below 100%
35°C or higher 98%
31°C 49%
30°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
25°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
26°C
$0 Vol.
39%
27°C
$0 Vol.
39%
28°C
$0 Vol.
39%
29°C
$0 Vol.
39%
30°C
$3 Vol.
40%
31°C
$24 Vol.
49%
32°C
$0 Vol.
39%
33°C
$0 Vol.
39%
34°C
$0 Vol.
39%
35°C or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=oejn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term weather model guidance for Jeddah shows considerable spread in projected overnight minimum temperatures for September 14, keeping market-implied odds near 50% across multiple thresholds. Coastal location on the Red Sea introduces variability from humidity, sea breezes, and potential cloud cover that can moderate radiative cooling, while urban heat island effects and wind patterns further influence the diurnal range. Ensemble forecasts from agencies such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA’s GFS exhibit typical uncertainty ranges of 2–4°C at this lead time, with resolution depending on the exact timing of any low-level moisture advection or clearer skies. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=oejn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=oejn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$27End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=oejnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=oejn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term weather model guidance for Jeddah shows considerable spread in projected overnight minimum temperatures for September 14, keeping market-implied odds near 50% across multiple thresholds. Coastal location on the Red Sea introduces variability from humidity, sea breezes, and potential cloud cover that can moderate radiative cooling, while urban heat island effects and wind patterns further influence the diurnal range. Ensemble forecasts from agencies such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA’s GFS exhibit typical uncertainty ranges of 2–4°C at this lead time, with resolution depending on the exact timing of any low-level moisture advection or clearer skies. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=oejn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=oejn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$27End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=oejnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-term weather model guidance for Jeddah shows considerable spread in projected overnight minimum temperatures for September 14, keeping market-implied odds near 50% across multiple thresholds. Coastal location on the Red Sea introduces variability from humidity, sea breezes, and potential cloud cover that can moderate radiative cooling, while urban heat island effects and wind patterns further influence the diurnal range. Ensemble forecasts from agencies such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA’s GFS exhibit typical uncertainty ranges of 2–4°C at this lead time, with resolution depending on the exact timing of any low-level moisture advection or clearer skies. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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