Recent model guidance points to a transition toward cooler northerly airflow over southern England by July 18, following an extended period of above-average warmth and multiple heatwaves across the UK this summer. This shift, driven by changing pressure patterns, supports minimum temperatures clustering around 13–16°C in London, consistent with climatological July overnight lows near 13°C yet tempered by the preceding warmth. Trader positioning reflects this uncertainty, with elevated implied probability on the 11°C-or-below outcome alongside mid-teens bins, as ensemble forecasts show modest spread in boundary-layer cooling and cloud cover. The Met Office and ECMWF will issue updated guidance in the next 24–48 hours that could further refine these ranges ahead of the overnight period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on July 18?
Lowest temperature in London on July 18?
16°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$24,171 Vol.
$24,171 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$24,171 Vol.
$24,171 Vol.
Jul 18, 2026
11°C or below
$986 Vol.
No
12°C
$1,372 Vol.
No
13°C
$2,103 Vol.
No
14°C
$1,719 Vol.
No
15°C
$2,918 Vol.
No
16°C
$7,467 Vol.
Yes
17°C
$5,588 Vol.
No
18°C
$843 Vol.
No
19°C
$443 Vol.
No
20°C
$517 Vol.
No
21°C or higher
$217 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance points to a transition toward cooler northerly airflow over southern England by July 18, following an extended period of above-average warmth and multiple heatwaves across the UK this summer. This shift, driven by changing pressure patterns, supports minimum temperatures clustering around 13–16°C in London, consistent with climatological July overnight lows near 13°C yet tempered by the preceding warmth. Trader positioning reflects this uncertainty, with elevated implied probability on the 11°C-or-below outcome alongside mid-teens bins, as ensemble forecasts show modest spread in boundary-layer cooling and cloud cover. The Met Office and ECMWF will issue updated guidance in the next 24–48 hours that could further refine these ranges ahead of the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$24,171End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance points to a transition toward cooler northerly airflow over southern England by July 18, following an extended period of above-average warmth and multiple heatwaves across the UK this summer. This shift, driven by changing pressure patterns, supports minimum temperatures clustering around 13–16°C in London, consistent with climatological July overnight lows near 13°C yet tempered by the preceding warmth. Trader positioning reflects this uncertainty, with elevated implied probability on the 11°C-or-below outcome alongside mid-teens bins, as ensemble forecasts show modest spread in boundary-layer cooling and cloud cover. The Met Office and ECMWF will issue updated guidance in the next 24–48 hours that could further refine these ranges ahead of the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$24,171End Date
Jul 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent model guidance points to a transition toward cooler northerly airflow over southern England by July 18, following an extended period of above-average warmth and multiple heatwaves across the UK this summer. This shift, driven by changing pressure patterns, supports minimum temperatures clustering around 13–16°C in London, consistent with climatological July overnight lows near 13°C yet tempered by the preceding warmth. Trader positioning reflects this uncertainty, with elevated implied probability on the 11°C-or-below outcome alongside mid-teens bins, as ensemble forecasts show modest spread in boundary-layer cooling and cloud cover. The Met Office and ECMWF will issue updated guidance in the next 24–48 hours that could further refine these ranges ahead of the overnight period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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