Latest ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and European models indicate a minimum temperature in London on September 5 most likely between 13–15 °C, driven by building high pressure, lighter westerly winds, and clearer overnight skies that promote radiative cooling after daytime maxima near 23 °C. This pattern follows a warm early-September spell and matches the market’s leading implied probabilities for 14 °C (41.5 %) and 13 °C (30 %), with lower odds on 15 °C reflecting residual model spread on cloud cover and wind speed. Historical early-September minima average near 12 °C, so the current consensus sits slightly above climatology. Traders will monitor the final 00Z and 12Z model runs plus real-time observations through the night of the 4th–5th for any last adjustments before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on September 5?
Lowest temperature in London on September 5?
14°C 42%
13°C 37%
10°C or below 23%
16°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
10°C or below
23%
11°C
7%
12°C
9%
13°C
37%
14°C
42%
15°C
22%
16°C
23%
17°C
2%
18°C
1%
19°C
2%
20°C or higher
2%
14°C 42%
13°C 37%
10°C or below 23%
16°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
10°C or below
$0 Vol.
23%
11°C
$165 Vol.
7%
12°C
$0 Vol.
9%
13°C
$73 Vol.
37%
14°C
$223 Vol.
42%
15°C
$12 Vol.
22%
16°C
$0 Vol.
23%
17°C
$0 Vol.
2%
18°C
$0 Vol.
1%
19°C
$0 Vol.
2%
20°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and European models indicate a minimum temperature in London on September 5 most likely between 13–15 °C, driven by building high pressure, lighter westerly winds, and clearer overnight skies that promote radiative cooling after daytime maxima near 23 °C. This pattern follows a warm early-September spell and matches the market’s leading implied probabilities for 14 °C (41.5 %) and 13 °C (30 %), with lower odds on 15 °C reflecting residual model spread on cloud cover and wind speed. Historical early-September minima average near 12 °C, so the current consensus sits slightly above climatology. Traders will monitor the final 00Z and 12Z model runs plus real-time observations through the night of the 4th–5th for any last adjustments before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$473End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and European models indicate a minimum temperature in London on September 5 most likely between 13–15 °C, driven by building high pressure, lighter westerly winds, and clearer overnight skies that promote radiative cooling after daytime maxima near 23 °C. This pattern follows a warm early-September spell and matches the market’s leading implied probabilities for 14 °C (41.5 %) and 13 °C (30 %), with lower odds on 15 °C reflecting residual model spread on cloud cover and wind speed. Historical early-September minima average near 12 °C, so the current consensus sits slightly above climatology. Traders will monitor the final 00Z and 12Z model runs plus real-time observations through the night of the 4th–5th for any last adjustments before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$473End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and European models indicate a minimum temperature in London on September 5 most likely between 13–15 °C, driven by building high pressure, lighter westerly winds, and clearer overnight skies that promote radiative cooling after daytime maxima near 23 °C. This pattern follows a warm early-September spell and matches the market’s leading implied probabilities for 14 °C (41.5 %) and 13 °C (30 %), with lower odds on 15 °C reflecting residual model spread on cloud cover and wind speed. Historical early-September minima average near 12 °C, so the current consensus sits slightly above climatology. Traders will monitor the final 00Z and 12Z model runs plus real-time observations through the night of the 4th–5th for any last adjustments before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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