Recent forecast guidance from PAGASA and global models indicates Manila overnight lows near 25°C on September 13 amid easterly flow, high humidity above 85 percent, and scattered thunderstorms that limit radiational cooling. Trader sentiment, reflected in the 48.5 percent implied probability for 19°C or below, appears driven by uncertainty around localized downpours or increased cloud cover that could briefly suppress temperatures below seasonal norms of 24–26°C. Upcoming model updates and official minimum readings from Manila stations will clarify whether current conditions support the clustered probabilities around 25–26°C or allow for greater variance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 13?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 13?
19°C or below 91%
20°C 40%
21°C 40%
22°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
19°C or below
91%
20°C
40%
21°C
40%
22°C
40%
23°C
22%
24°C
22%
25°C
24%
26°C
24%
27°C
22%
28°C
40%
29°C or higher
<1%
19°C or below 91%
20°C 40%
21°C 40%
22°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
19°C or below
$0 Vol.
91%
20°C
$0 Vol.
40%
21°C
$0 Vol.
40%
22°C
$79 Vol.
40%
23°C
$62 Vol.
22%
24°C
$0 Vol.
22%
25°C
$5 Vol.
24%
26°C
$0 Vol.
24%
27°C
$40 Vol.
22%
28°C
$0 Vol.
40%
29°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from PAGASA and global models indicates Manila overnight lows near 25°C on September 13 amid easterly flow, high humidity above 85 percent, and scattered thunderstorms that limit radiational cooling. Trader sentiment, reflected in the 48.5 percent implied probability for 19°C or below, appears driven by uncertainty around localized downpours or increased cloud cover that could briefly suppress temperatures below seasonal norms of 24–26°C. Upcoming model updates and official minimum readings from Manila stations will clarify whether current conditions support the clustered probabilities around 25–26°C or allow for greater variance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$185End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from PAGASA and global models indicates Manila overnight lows near 25°C on September 13 amid easterly flow, high humidity above 85 percent, and scattered thunderstorms that limit radiational cooling. Trader sentiment, reflected in the 48.5 percent implied probability for 19°C or below, appears driven by uncertainty around localized downpours or increased cloud cover that could briefly suppress temperatures below seasonal norms of 24–26°C. Upcoming model updates and official minimum readings from Manila stations will clarify whether current conditions support the clustered probabilities around 25–26°C or allow for greater variance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$185End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from PAGASA and global models indicates Manila overnight lows near 25°C on September 13 amid easterly flow, high humidity above 85 percent, and scattered thunderstorms that limit radiational cooling. Trader sentiment, reflected in the 48.5 percent implied probability for 19°C or below, appears driven by uncertainty around localized downpours or increased cloud cover that could briefly suppress temperatures below seasonal norms of 24–26°C. Upcoming model updates and official minimum readings from Manila stations will clarify whether current conditions support the clustered probabilities around 25–26°C or allow for greater variance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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