Current forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate Manila's overnight low on September 21 will likely fall in the 25–26°C range, driven by the southwest monsoon (habagat) delivering persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and high humidity that moderates radiative cooling. This setup compresses the diurnal temperature range in Manila's tropical climate, where typical September minima hover near 25°C. Strengthening El Niño conditions favor broader warming trends but exert limited influence over this 48-hour window compared with monsoon dynamics. Trader sentiment remains split near 45–46% between sub-21°C and 31°C+ outcomes because exact minima depend on localized thunderstorm timing and cloud breaks, though official guidance shows low probability of extremes outside the mid-20s. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings through September 20 will refine resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 21?
31°C or higher 97%
21°C or below 96%
27°C 40%
23°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
21°C or below
96%
22°C
17%
23°C
38%
24°C
38%
25°C
22%
26°C
22%
27°C
24%
28°C
38%
29°C
17%
30°C
17%
31°C or higher
97%
31°C or higher 97%
21°C or below 96%
27°C 40%
23°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
96%
22°C
$0 Vol.
17%
23°C
$0 Vol.
38%
24°C
$0 Vol.
38%
25°C
$0 Vol.
22%
26°C
$0 Vol.
22%
27°C
$5 Vol.
24%
28°C
$0 Vol.
38%
29°C
$0 Vol.
17%
30°C
$0 Vol.
17%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate Manila's overnight low on September 21 will likely fall in the 25–26°C range, driven by the southwest monsoon (habagat) delivering persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and high humidity that moderates radiative cooling. This setup compresses the diurnal temperature range in Manila's tropical climate, where typical September minima hover near 25°C. Strengthening El Niño conditions favor broader warming trends but exert limited influence over this 48-hour window compared with monsoon dynamics. Trader sentiment remains split near 45–46% between sub-21°C and 31°C+ outcomes because exact minima depend on localized thunderstorm timing and cloud breaks, though official guidance shows low probability of extremes outside the mid-20s. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings through September 20 will refine resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$5End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate Manila's overnight low on September 21 will likely fall in the 25–26°C range, driven by the southwest monsoon (habagat) delivering persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and high humidity that moderates radiative cooling. This setup compresses the diurnal temperature range in Manila's tropical climate, where typical September minima hover near 25°C. Strengthening El Niño conditions favor broader warming trends but exert limited influence over this 48-hour window compared with monsoon dynamics. Trader sentiment remains split near 45–46% between sub-21°C and 31°C+ outcomes because exact minima depend on localized thunderstorm timing and cloud breaks, though official guidance shows low probability of extremes outside the mid-20s. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings through September 20 will refine resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate Manila's overnight low on September 21 will likely fall in the 25–26°C range, driven by the southwest monsoon (habagat) delivering persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and high humidity that moderates radiative cooling. This setup compresses the diurnal temperature range in Manila's tropical climate, where typical September minima hover near 25°C. Strengthening El Niño conditions favor broader warming trends but exert limited influence over this 48-hour window compared with monsoon dynamics. Trader sentiment remains split near 45–46% between sub-21°C and 31°C+ outcomes because exact minima depend on localized thunderstorm timing and cloud breaks, though official guidance shows low probability of extremes outside the mid-20s. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings through September 20 will refine resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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