Recent forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate Manila's September 21 high will likely reach 31–32°C under the southwest monsoon, with scattered thunderstorms and high humidity suppressing peak readings. Persistent cloud cover and rainfall—typical for the season—have kept recent daily maxima near 31°C, aligning trader consensus on 32°C (40% implied probability) ahead of 33°C or 31°C. El Niño influences remain secondary to monsoon steering, while any model shift toward clearer skies or reduced convection could elevate odds for 33–34°C. Official PAGASA updates and refined numerical guidance over the next 48 hours represent the key near-term catalysts for market movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on September 21?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 21?
32°C 42%
33°C 26%
31°C 22%
34°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
28°C or below
2%
29°C
4%
30°C
5%
31°C
22%
32°C
44%
33°C
26%
34°C
10%
35°C
<1%
36°C
2%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
32°C 42%
33°C 26%
31°C 22%
34°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
28°C or below
$152 Vol.
2%
29°C
$135 Vol.
4%
30°C
$96 Vol.
5%
31°C
$997 Vol.
22%
32°C
$463 Vol.
44%
33°C
$525 Vol.
26%
34°C
$255 Vol.
10%
35°C
$111 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$0 Vol.
2%
37°C
$111 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$4 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate Manila's September 21 high will likely reach 31–32°C under the southwest monsoon, with scattered thunderstorms and high humidity suppressing peak readings. Persistent cloud cover and rainfall—typical for the season—have kept recent daily maxima near 31°C, aligning trader consensus on 32°C (40% implied probability) ahead of 33°C or 31°C. El Niño influences remain secondary to monsoon steering, while any model shift toward clearer skies or reduced convection could elevate odds for 33–34°C. Official PAGASA updates and refined numerical guidance over the next 48 hours represent the key near-term catalysts for market movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$2,849End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate Manila's September 21 high will likely reach 31–32°C under the southwest monsoon, with scattered thunderstorms and high humidity suppressing peak readings. Persistent cloud cover and rainfall—typical for the season—have kept recent daily maxima near 31°C, aligning trader consensus on 32°C (40% implied probability) ahead of 33°C or 31°C. El Niño influences remain secondary to monsoon steering, while any model shift toward clearer skies or reduced convection could elevate odds for 33–34°C. Official PAGASA updates and refined numerical guidance over the next 48 hours represent the key near-term catalysts for market movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,849End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate Manila's September 21 high will likely reach 31–32°C under the southwest monsoon, with scattered thunderstorms and high humidity suppressing peak readings. Persistent cloud cover and rainfall—typical for the season—have kept recent daily maxima near 31°C, aligning trader consensus on 32°C (40% implied probability) ahead of 33°C or 31°C. El Niño influences remain secondary to monsoon steering, while any model shift toward clearer skies or reduced convection could elevate odds for 33–34°C. Official PAGASA updates and refined numerical guidance over the next 48 hours represent the key near-term catalysts for market movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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