Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicate a minimum temperature near 18°C in Milan on September 13 under high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds that favor radiative cooling overnight after daytime highs around 25–26°C. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds shows notable uncertainty around this value, with differentiation driven by subtle variations in boundary-layer mixing, dew point depression, and any late-evening cloud increases that could limit cooling. Historical September minima average near 16°C, providing context for why outcomes clustered between 16–21°C attract significant volume while more extreme tails remain lower-probability given the stable synoptic pattern. Updated model guidance and real-time observations tonight will likely refine resolution criteria for the daily low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on September 13?
Lowest temperature in Milan on September 13?
21°C or higher 69%
11°C or below 65%
20°C 39%
16°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
11°C or below
65%
12°C
15%
13°C
10%
14°C
23%
15°C
23%
16°C
28%
17°C
24%
18°C
21%
19°C
16%
20°C
39%
21°C or higher
69%
21°C or higher 69%
11°C or below 65%
20°C 39%
16°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
65%
12°C
$30 Vol.
15%
13°C
$8 Vol.
10%
14°C
$0 Vol.
23%
15°C
$0 Vol.
23%
16°C
$0 Vol.
28%
17°C
$0 Vol.
24%
18°C
$114 Vol.
21%
19°C
$842 Vol.
16%
20°C
$0 Vol.
39%
21°C or higher
$0 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicate a minimum temperature near 18°C in Milan on September 13 under high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds that favor radiative cooling overnight after daytime highs around 25–26°C. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds shows notable uncertainty around this value, with differentiation driven by subtle variations in boundary-layer mixing, dew point depression, and any late-evening cloud increases that could limit cooling. Historical September minima average near 16°C, providing context for why outcomes clustered between 16–21°C attract significant volume while more extreme tails remain lower-probability given the stable synoptic pattern. Updated model guidance and real-time observations tonight will likely refine resolution criteria for the daily low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$994End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicate a minimum temperature near 18°C in Milan on September 13 under high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds that favor radiative cooling overnight after daytime highs around 25–26°C. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds shows notable uncertainty around this value, with differentiation driven by subtle variations in boundary-layer mixing, dew point depression, and any late-evening cloud increases that could limit cooling. Historical September minima average near 16°C, providing context for why outcomes clustered between 16–21°C attract significant volume while more extreme tails remain lower-probability given the stable synoptic pattern. Updated model guidance and real-time observations tonight will likely refine resolution criteria for the daily low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$994End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicate a minimum temperature near 18°C in Milan on September 13 under high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds that favor radiative cooling overnight after daytime highs around 25–26°C. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds shows notable uncertainty around this value, with differentiation driven by subtle variations in boundary-layer mixing, dew point depression, and any late-evening cloud increases that could limit cooling. Historical September minima average near 16°C, providing context for why outcomes clustered between 16–21°C attract significant volume while more extreme tails remain lower-probability given the stable synoptic pattern. Updated model guidance and real-time observations tonight will likely refine resolution criteria for the daily low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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