Forecast models from sources like Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and international services show Moscow's overnight low on August 30 likely falling in the 9–13°C range, with clear skies and light southerly winds promoting moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs near 20–23°C. This equilibrium produces closely matched market odds around 10–12°C because small variations in cloud cover, humidity, or wind speed can shift the minimum by 1–2°C through altered longwave radiation loss and boundary-layer mixing. The near-even split between sub-5°C and 15°C+ outcomes reflects residual model spread and historical variability, where August nocturnal temperatures have ranged from 3°C records to milder values under different synoptic patterns. Updated runs from NOAA and local agencies over the next 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on August 30?
5°C or below 88%
15°C or higher 88%
6°C 50%
14°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
5°C or below
88%
6°C
50%
7°C
26%
8°C
26%
9°C
26%
10°C
27%
11°C
27%
12°C
27%
13°C
26%
14°C
50%
15°C or higher
88%
5°C or below 88%
15°C or higher 88%
6°C 50%
14°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
5°C or below
$145 Vol.
88%
6°C
$15 Vol.
50%
7°C
$0 Vol.
26%
8°C
$0 Vol.
26%
9°C
$0 Vol.
26%
10°C
$0 Vol.
27%
11°C
$0 Vol.
27%
12°C
$0 Vol.
27%
13°C
$0 Vol.
26%
14°C
$10 Vol.
50%
15°C or higher
$145 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and international services show Moscow's overnight low on August 30 likely falling in the 9–13°C range, with clear skies and light southerly winds promoting moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs near 20–23°C. This equilibrium produces closely matched market odds around 10–12°C because small variations in cloud cover, humidity, or wind speed can shift the minimum by 1–2°C through altered longwave radiation loss and boundary-layer mixing. The near-even split between sub-5°C and 15°C+ outcomes reflects residual model spread and historical variability, where August nocturnal temperatures have ranged from 3°C records to milder values under different synoptic patterns. Updated runs from NOAA and local agencies over the next 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$315End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and international services show Moscow's overnight low on August 30 likely falling in the 9–13°C range, with clear skies and light southerly winds promoting moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs near 20–23°C. This equilibrium produces closely matched market odds around 10–12°C because small variations in cloud cover, humidity, or wind speed can shift the minimum by 1–2°C through altered longwave radiation loss and boundary-layer mixing. The near-even split between sub-5°C and 15°C+ outcomes reflects residual model spread and historical variability, where August nocturnal temperatures have ranged from 3°C records to milder values under different synoptic patterns. Updated runs from NOAA and local agencies over the next 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$315End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources like Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and international services show Moscow's overnight low on August 30 likely falling in the 9–13°C range, with clear skies and light southerly winds promoting moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs near 20–23°C. This equilibrium produces closely matched market odds around 10–12°C because small variations in cloud cover, humidity, or wind speed can shift the minimum by 1–2°C through altered longwave radiation loss and boundary-layer mixing. The near-even split between sub-5°C and 15°C+ outcomes reflects residual model spread and historical variability, where August nocturnal temperatures have ranged from 3°C records to milder values under different synoptic patterns. Updated runs from NOAA and local agencies over the next 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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