Recent official forecasts from AEMET and supporting ECMWF/GFS model consensus point to a peak of 33–34°C in Madrid on August 31 under clear skies, high pressure, and light winds that favor strong daytime heating without significant mixing or cloud cover. This setup aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 34°C (52.5%) and 35°C (26.0%), as current runs show afternoon maxima near or slightly above the 32–33°C climatological norm for late August while ruling out cooler outcomes. Low humidity and minimal precipitation risk further support these levels, though any late-model shift in steering flow or added moisture could trim the high end before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 31?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 31?
34°C 53%
35°C 26%
33°C 19%
36°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
4%
31°C
2%
32°C
5%
33°C
19%
34°C
53%
35°C
26%
36°C
8%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 53%
35°C 26%
33°C 19%
36°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
29°C or below
$132 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$0 Vol.
4%
31°C
$0 Vol.
2%
32°C
$21 Vol.
5%
33°C
$27 Vol.
19%
34°C
$107 Vol.
53%
35°C
$532 Vol.
26%
36°C
$0 Vol.
8%
37°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$20 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from AEMET and supporting ECMWF/GFS model consensus point to a peak of 33–34°C in Madrid on August 31 under clear skies, high pressure, and light winds that favor strong daytime heating without significant mixing or cloud cover. This setup aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 34°C (52.5%) and 35°C (26.0%), as current runs show afternoon maxima near or slightly above the 32–33°C climatological norm for late August while ruling out cooler outcomes. Low humidity and minimal precipitation risk further support these levels, though any late-model shift in steering flow or added moisture could trim the high end before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$860End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from AEMET and supporting ECMWF/GFS model consensus point to a peak of 33–34°C in Madrid on August 31 under clear skies, high pressure, and light winds that favor strong daytime heating without significant mixing or cloud cover. This setup aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 34°C (52.5%) and 35°C (26.0%), as current runs show afternoon maxima near or slightly above the 32–33°C climatological norm for late August while ruling out cooler outcomes. Low humidity and minimal precipitation risk further support these levels, though any late-model shift in steering flow or added moisture could trim the high end before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$860End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from AEMET and supporting ECMWF/GFS model consensus point to a peak of 33–34°C in Madrid on August 31 under clear skies, high pressure, and light winds that favor strong daytime heating without significant mixing or cloud cover. This setup aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 34°C (52.5%) and 35°C (26.0%), as current runs show afternoon maxima near or slightly above the 32–33°C climatological norm for late August while ruling out cooler outcomes. Low humidity and minimal precipitation risk further support these levels, though any late-model shift in steering flow or added moisture could trim the high end before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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