Stable high-pressure conditions and clear skies are positioning Madrid for a peak temperature near 32–33 °C on August 30, aligning with the market’s leading 33 °C (56.5 %) and 34 °C (27.5 %) outcomes. Latest model runs from multiple sources consistently forecast afternoon highs of 31–33 °C under light southwesterly flow, dry air, and minimal cloud cover, consistent with late-August climatology for the city’s 650 m elevation and continental regime. No significant frontal systems or heat-wave amplification are expected in the next 48 hours, keeping probabilities for 35 °C or higher low while supporting the narrow spread around the most likely values. Final official readings from AEMET stations will resolve the market, with any last-minute model adjustments or local wind shifts representing the main sources of remaining uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 30?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 30?
33°C 57%
34°C 27%
32°C 18%
31°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
28°C or below
1%
29°C
4%
30°C
4%
31°C
5%
32°C
18%
33°C
57%
34°C
27%
35°C
5%
36°C
2%
37°C
1%
38°C or higher
<1%
33°C 57%
34°C 27%
32°C 18%
31°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
28°C or below
$15 Vol.
1%
29°C
$0 Vol.
4%
30°C
$0 Vol.
4%
31°C
$35 Vol.
5%
32°C
$20 Vol.
18%
33°C
$256 Vol.
57%
34°C
$119 Vol.
27%
35°C
$40 Vol.
5%
36°C
$0 Vol.
2%
37°C
$15 Vol.
1%
38°C or higher
$65 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Stable high-pressure conditions and clear skies are positioning Madrid for a peak temperature near 32–33 °C on August 30, aligning with the market’s leading 33 °C (56.5 %) and 34 °C (27.5 %) outcomes. Latest model runs from multiple sources consistently forecast afternoon highs of 31–33 °C under light southwesterly flow, dry air, and minimal cloud cover, consistent with late-August climatology for the city’s 650 m elevation and continental regime. No significant frontal systems or heat-wave amplification are expected in the next 48 hours, keeping probabilities for 35 °C or higher low while supporting the narrow spread around the most likely values. Final official readings from AEMET stations will resolve the market, with any last-minute model adjustments or local wind shifts representing the main sources of remaining uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$565End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Stable high-pressure conditions and clear skies are positioning Madrid for a peak temperature near 32–33 °C on August 30, aligning with the market’s leading 33 °C (56.5 %) and 34 °C (27.5 %) outcomes. Latest model runs from multiple sources consistently forecast afternoon highs of 31–33 °C under light southwesterly flow, dry air, and minimal cloud cover, consistent with late-August climatology for the city’s 650 m elevation and continental regime. No significant frontal systems or heat-wave amplification are expected in the next 48 hours, keeping probabilities for 35 °C or higher low while supporting the narrow spread around the most likely values. Final official readings from AEMET stations will resolve the market, with any last-minute model adjustments or local wind shifts representing the main sources of remaining uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$565End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Stable high-pressure conditions and clear skies are positioning Madrid for a peak temperature near 32–33 °C on August 30, aligning with the market’s leading 33 °C (56.5 %) and 34 °C (27.5 %) outcomes. Latest model runs from multiple sources consistently forecast afternoon highs of 31–33 °C under light southwesterly flow, dry air, and minimal cloud cover, consistent with late-August climatology for the city’s 650 m elevation and continental regime. No significant frontal systems or heat-wave amplification are expected in the next 48 hours, keeping probabilities for 35 °C or higher low while supporting the narrow spread around the most likely values. Final official readings from AEMET stations will resolve the market, with any last-minute model adjustments or local wind shifts representing the main sources of remaining uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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