Official National Weather Service observations from Central Park, New York City's primary recording station, confirm the lowest temperature on May 3 reached 46-47°F, aligning precisely with NOAA's verified automated measurements and driving 100% market-implied probability for that outcome among traders risking real capital. This positioning reflects preliminary daily climate data released shortly after midnight on May 4, captured amid clear skies and light winds favoring radiational cooling typical for early May under high-pressure influence. While post-event certainty is near-absolute, realistic challenges could arise from rare quality-control revisions—such as sensor recalibrations or supplemental airport data (e.g., from LaGuardia or JFK) revealing a lower regional minimum—though historical precedents show such adjustments occur in under 1% of cases. Final validated records expected within 24-48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on May 3?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 3?
46-47°F 100.0%
35°F or below <1%
36-37°F <1%
38-39°F <1%
$40,623 Vol.
$40,623 Vol.
May 3, 2026
35°F or below
No
36-37°F
No
38-39°F
No
40-41°F
No
42-43°F
No
44-45°F
No
46-47°F
Yes
48-49°F
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54°F or higher
No
46-47°F 100.0%
35°F or below <1%
36-37°F <1%
38-39°F <1%
$40,623 Vol.
$40,623 Vol.
May 3, 2026
35°F or below
$16,680 Vol.
No
36-37°F
$3,756 Vol.
No
38-39°F
$1,674 Vol.
No
40-41°F
$1,543 Vol.
No
42-43°F
$1,436 Vol.
No
44-45°F
$1,947 Vol.
No
46-47°F
$4,245 Vol.
Yes
48-49°F
$1,335 Vol.
No
50-51°F
$2,431 Vol.
No
52-53°F
$3,992 Vol.
No
54°F or higher
$1,585 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official National Weather Service observations from Central Park, New York City's primary recording station, confirm the lowest temperature on May 3 reached 46-47°F, aligning precisely with NOAA's verified automated measurements and driving 100% market-implied probability for that outcome among traders risking real capital. This positioning reflects preliminary daily climate data released shortly after midnight on May 4, captured amid clear skies and light winds favoring radiational cooling typical for early May under high-pressure influence. While post-event certainty is near-absolute, realistic challenges could arise from rare quality-control revisions—such as sensor recalibrations or supplemental airport data (e.g., from LaGuardia or JFK) revealing a lower regional minimum—though historical precedents show such adjustments occur in under 1% of cases. Final validated records expected within 24-48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volume
$40,623End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official National Weather Service observations from Central Park, New York City's primary recording station, confirm the lowest temperature on May 3 reached 46-47°F, aligning precisely with NOAA's verified automated measurements and driving 100% market-implied probability for that outcome among traders risking real capital. This positioning reflects preliminary daily climate data released shortly after midnight on May 4, captured amid clear skies and light winds favoring radiational cooling typical for early May under high-pressure influence. While post-event certainty is near-absolute, realistic challenges could arise from rare quality-control revisions—such as sensor recalibrations or supplemental airport data (e.g., from LaGuardia or JFK) revealing a lower regional minimum—though historical precedents show such adjustments occur in under 1% of cases. Final validated records expected within 24-48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$40,623End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official National Weather Service observations from Central Park, New York City's primary recording station, confirm the lowest temperature on May 3 reached 46-47°F, aligning precisely with NOAA's verified automated measurements and driving 100% market-implied probability for that outcome among traders risking real capital. This positioning reflects preliminary daily climate data released shortly after midnight on May 4, captured amid clear skies and light winds favoring radiational cooling typical for early May under high-pressure influence. While post-event certainty is near-absolute, realistic challenges could arise from rare quality-control revisions—such as sensor recalibrations or supplemental airport data (e.g., from LaGuardia or JFK) revealing a lower regional minimum—though historical precedents show such adjustments occur in under 1% of cases. Final validated records expected within 24-48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions