Recent official forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF ensembles indicate a cooling trend with overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light westerly flow, positioning a 16°C minimum as the most likely outcome for Paris on August 20. Daytime highs near 25–26°C followed by evening showers have enhanced surface heat loss, consistent with climatological August lows averaging 14–15°C yet tempered by residual warmth from mid-August highs above 30°C. Model spreads remain narrow around 15–17°C, with minimal risk of deeper drops absent stronger high-pressure development or clear-sky amplification. Updated guidance ahead of the 48-hour window will refine these probabilities as steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture evolve.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 20?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 20?
16°C 55%
15°C 39%
17°C 21%
14°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
5%
14°C
10%
15°C
21%
16°C
55%
17°C
21%
18°C
5%
19°C
2%
20°C
1%
21°C or higher
<1%
16°C 55%
15°C 39%
17°C 21%
14°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
11°C or below
$2 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$2 Vol.
1%
13°C
$2 Vol.
5%
14°C
$33 Vol.
10%
15°C
$5 Vol.
21%
16°C
$30 Vol.
55%
17°C
$2 Vol.
21%
18°C
$2 Vol.
5%
19°C
$22 Vol.
2%
20°C
$82 Vol.
1%
21°C or higher
$316 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF ensembles indicate a cooling trend with overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light westerly flow, positioning a 16°C minimum as the most likely outcome for Paris on August 20. Daytime highs near 25–26°C followed by evening showers have enhanced surface heat loss, consistent with climatological August lows averaging 14–15°C yet tempered by residual warmth from mid-August highs above 30°C. Model spreads remain narrow around 15–17°C, with minimal risk of deeper drops absent stronger high-pressure development or clear-sky amplification. Updated guidance ahead of the 48-hour window will refine these probabilities as steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture evolve.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$500End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF ensembles indicate a cooling trend with overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light westerly flow, positioning a 16°C minimum as the most likely outcome for Paris on August 20. Daytime highs near 25–26°C followed by evening showers have enhanced surface heat loss, consistent with climatological August lows averaging 14–15°C yet tempered by residual warmth from mid-August highs above 30°C. Model spreads remain narrow around 15–17°C, with minimal risk of deeper drops absent stronger high-pressure development or clear-sky amplification. Updated guidance ahead of the 48-hour window will refine these probabilities as steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture evolve.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$500End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF ensembles indicate a cooling trend with overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light westerly flow, positioning a 16°C minimum as the most likely outcome for Paris on August 20. Daytime highs near 25–26°C followed by evening showers have enhanced surface heat loss, consistent with climatological August lows averaging 14–15°C yet tempered by residual warmth from mid-August highs above 30°C. Model spreads remain narrow around 15–17°C, with minimal risk of deeper drops absent stronger high-pressure development or clear-sky amplification. Updated guidance ahead of the 48-hour window will refine these probabilities as steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture evolve.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions