Recent model runs indicate a shift toward cooler Atlantic air and unsettled conditions across northern France, with cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate southwesterly winds limiting overnight radiative cooling for Paris on August 28. These factors support minimum temperatures clustered around 16–17 °C as the most probable outcomes, consistent with the tight market spread between those levels. Stronger winds or persistent rain would suppress the low by mixing the boundary layer and reducing clear-sky cooling, while clearer breaks could allow readings nearer 15 °C. Conversely, delayed frontal passage or lighter winds might keep the minimum closer to 18–19 °C. ECMWF and GFS updates over the next 48 hours will refine timing of any showers and wind strength, directly influencing which threshold resolves. Historical late-August averages near 13.6 °C provide context, but the current synoptic pattern favors above-normal minima.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 28?
17°C 45%
16°C 36%
19°C 28%
20°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
12°C or below
5%
13°C
11%
14°C
25%
15°C
27%
16°C
36%
17°C
45%
18°C
27%
19°C
28%
20°C
28%
21°C
8%
22°C or higher
11%
17°C 45%
16°C 36%
19°C 28%
20°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
12°C or below
$22 Vol.
5%
13°C
$0 Vol.
11%
14°C
$0 Vol.
25%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$0 Vol.
36%
17°C
$0 Vol.
45%
18°C
$0 Vol.
27%
19°C
$0 Vol.
28%
20°C
$0 Vol.
28%
21°C
$10 Vol.
8%
22°C or higher
$0 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs indicate a shift toward cooler Atlantic air and unsettled conditions across northern France, with cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate southwesterly winds limiting overnight radiative cooling for Paris on August 28. These factors support minimum temperatures clustered around 16–17 °C as the most probable outcomes, consistent with the tight market spread between those levels. Stronger winds or persistent rain would suppress the low by mixing the boundary layer and reducing clear-sky cooling, while clearer breaks could allow readings nearer 15 °C. Conversely, delayed frontal passage or lighter winds might keep the minimum closer to 18–19 °C. ECMWF and GFS updates over the next 48 hours will refine timing of any showers and wind strength, directly influencing which threshold resolves. Historical late-August averages near 13.6 °C provide context, but the current synoptic pattern favors above-normal minima.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$32End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs indicate a shift toward cooler Atlantic air and unsettled conditions across northern France, with cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate southwesterly winds limiting overnight radiative cooling for Paris on August 28. These factors support minimum temperatures clustered around 16–17 °C as the most probable outcomes, consistent with the tight market spread between those levels. Stronger winds or persistent rain would suppress the low by mixing the boundary layer and reducing clear-sky cooling, while clearer breaks could allow readings nearer 15 °C. Conversely, delayed frontal passage or lighter winds might keep the minimum closer to 18–19 °C. ECMWF and GFS updates over the next 48 hours will refine timing of any showers and wind strength, directly influencing which threshold resolves. Historical late-August averages near 13.6 °C provide context, but the current synoptic pattern favors above-normal minima.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$32End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model runs indicate a shift toward cooler Atlantic air and unsettled conditions across northern France, with cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate southwesterly winds limiting overnight radiative cooling for Paris on August 28. These factors support minimum temperatures clustered around 16–17 °C as the most probable outcomes, consistent with the tight market spread between those levels. Stronger winds or persistent rain would suppress the low by mixing the boundary layer and reducing clear-sky cooling, while clearer breaks could allow readings nearer 15 °C. Conversely, delayed frontal passage or lighter winds might keep the minimum closer to 18–19 °C. ECMWF and GFS updates over the next 48 hours will refine timing of any showers and wind strength, directly influencing which threshold resolves. Historical late-August averages near 13.6 °C provide context, but the current synoptic pattern favors above-normal minima.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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