Recent weather model runs from sources like GFS indicate overnight lows in Paris for September 18 will likely settle in the 12–14 °C range under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 11 °C and 12 °C. These conditions reflect a typical late-summer pattern with moderate Atlantic influence moderating temperatures near the 1991–2020 climatological average low of roughly 11.4 °C. Key variables still in play include small differences in cloud cover timing and boundary-layer mixing that could shift the exact minimum by 1–2 °C, while longer-range ensembles show limited potential for warmer outcomes near 17 °C or higher. Updated high-resolution forecasts and official Météo-France guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signal ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 18?
17°C or higher 59%
11°C 44%
10°C 38%
8°C 32%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
7°C or below
2%
8°C
32%
9°C
32%
10°C
38%
11°C
31%
12°C
30%
13°C
18%
14°C
32%
15°C
32%
16°C
32%
17°C or higher
59%
17°C or higher 59%
11°C 44%
10°C 38%
8°C 32%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
8°C
$0 Vol.
32%
9°C
$0 Vol.
32%
10°C
$0 Vol.
38%
11°C
$114 Vol.
31%
12°C
$84 Vol.
30%
13°C
$63 Vol.
18%
14°C
$0 Vol.
32%
15°C
$0 Vol.
32%
16°C
$0 Vol.
32%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model runs from sources like GFS indicate overnight lows in Paris for September 18 will likely settle in the 12–14 °C range under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 11 °C and 12 °C. These conditions reflect a typical late-summer pattern with moderate Atlantic influence moderating temperatures near the 1991–2020 climatological average low of roughly 11.4 °C. Key variables still in play include small differences in cloud cover timing and boundary-layer mixing that could shift the exact minimum by 1–2 °C, while longer-range ensembles show limited potential for warmer outcomes near 17 °C or higher. Updated high-resolution forecasts and official Météo-France guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signal ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$261End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model runs from sources like GFS indicate overnight lows in Paris for September 18 will likely settle in the 12–14 °C range under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 11 °C and 12 °C. These conditions reflect a typical late-summer pattern with moderate Atlantic influence moderating temperatures near the 1991–2020 climatological average low of roughly 11.4 °C. Key variables still in play include small differences in cloud cover timing and boundary-layer mixing that could shift the exact minimum by 1–2 °C, while longer-range ensembles show limited potential for warmer outcomes near 17 °C or higher. Updated high-resolution forecasts and official Météo-France guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signal ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$261End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weather model runs from sources like GFS indicate overnight lows in Paris for September 18 will likely settle in the 12–14 °C range under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 11 °C and 12 °C. These conditions reflect a typical late-summer pattern with moderate Atlantic influence moderating temperatures near the 1991–2020 climatological average low of roughly 11.4 °C. Key variables still in play include small differences in cloud cover timing and boundary-layer mixing that could shift the exact minimum by 1–2 °C, while longer-range ensembles show limited potential for warmer outcomes near 17 °C or higher. Updated high-resolution forecasts and official Météo-France guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signal ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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