Recent ECMWF and GFS model runs under a persistent anticyclone show stable, mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions over Paris, supporting overnight radiative cooling to a minimum near 12–13 °C, consistent with Météo-France guidance. Market-implied odds cluster tightly on 10–11 °C because traders weigh the possibility of marginally stronger cooling from localized clear skies or lower wind speeds at the official station, versus the risk of residual high cloud or urban heat retention keeping readings closer to 12 °C. Historical September lows average 10.9 °C, but current dry, light-wind patterns favor values near the upper end of that range. The final recorded minimum will be confirmed by morning observations, with little model spread expected before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 23?
11°C 45%
10°C 41%
12°C 11%
13°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
8°C or below
1%
9°C
5%
10°C
41%
11°C
45%
12°C
11%
13°C
7%
14°C
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
1%
11°C 45%
10°C 41%
12°C 11%
13°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
9°C
$88 Vol.
5%
10°C
$507 Vol.
41%
11°C
$1,190 Vol.
45%
12°C
$318 Vol.
11%
13°C
$90 Vol.
7%
14°C
$24 Vol.
1%
15°C
$0 Vol.
2%
16°C
$0 Vol.
1%
17°C
$0 Vol.
1%
18°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ECMWF and GFS model runs under a persistent anticyclone show stable, mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions over Paris, supporting overnight radiative cooling to a minimum near 12–13 °C, consistent with Météo-France guidance. Market-implied odds cluster tightly on 10–11 °C because traders weigh the possibility of marginally stronger cooling from localized clear skies or lower wind speeds at the official station, versus the risk of residual high cloud or urban heat retention keeping readings closer to 12 °C. Historical September lows average 10.9 °C, but current dry, light-wind patterns favor values near the upper end of that range. The final recorded minimum will be confirmed by morning observations, with little model spread expected before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,218End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ECMWF and GFS model runs under a persistent anticyclone show stable, mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions over Paris, supporting overnight radiative cooling to a minimum near 12–13 °C, consistent with Météo-France guidance. Market-implied odds cluster tightly on 10–11 °C because traders weigh the possibility of marginally stronger cooling from localized clear skies or lower wind speeds at the official station, versus the risk of residual high cloud or urban heat retention keeping readings closer to 12 °C. Historical September lows average 10.9 °C, but current dry, light-wind patterns favor values near the upper end of that range. The final recorded minimum will be confirmed by morning observations, with little model spread expected before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,218End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ECMWF and GFS model runs under a persistent anticyclone show stable, mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions over Paris, supporting overnight radiative cooling to a minimum near 12–13 °C, consistent with Météo-France guidance. Market-implied odds cluster tightly on 10–11 °C because traders weigh the possibility of marginally stronger cooling from localized clear skies or lower wind speeds at the official station, versus the risk of residual high cloud or urban heat retention keeping readings closer to 12 °C. Historical September lows average 10.9 °C, but current dry, light-wind patterns favor values near the upper end of that range. The final recorded minimum will be confirmed by morning observations, with little model spread expected before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions