Recent forecasts from GFS and regional models indicate an overnight low in Paris on September 24 near 11–13°C under persistent high pressure, with light northeasterly winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies limiting extreme radiative cooling. This setup follows several days of stable anticyclonic conditions that have kept temperatures close to or slightly above the 10.8°C climatological average low. Model spread arises mainly from differences in predicted cloud thickness and boundary-layer mixing overnight, which can shift the minimum by 1–2°C; traders appear to weigh these variables evenly given the tight clustering of implied probabilities around 11–13°C. Updated model runs and Météo-France guidance ahead of the date will likely refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on September 24?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 24?
9°C or below 67%
10°C 33%
15°C 33%
12°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
9°C or below
67%
10°C
33%
11°C
22%
12°C
29%
13°C
22%
14°C
19%
15°C
33%
16°C
18%
17°C
2%
18°C
2%
19°C or higher
2%
9°C or below 67%
10°C 33%
15°C 33%
12°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Vol.
67%
10°C
$0 Vol.
33%
11°C
$84 Vol.
22%
12°C
$104 Vol.
29%
13°C
$84 Vol.
22%
14°C
$0 Vol.
19%
15°C
$0 Vol.
33%
16°C
$0 Vol.
18%
17°C
$0 Vol.
2%
18°C
$0 Vol.
2%
19°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from GFS and regional models indicate an overnight low in Paris on September 24 near 11–13°C under persistent high pressure, with light northeasterly winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies limiting extreme radiative cooling. This setup follows several days of stable anticyclonic conditions that have kept temperatures close to or slightly above the 10.8°C climatological average low. Model spread arises mainly from differences in predicted cloud thickness and boundary-layer mixing overnight, which can shift the minimum by 1–2°C; traders appear to weigh these variables evenly given the tight clustering of implied probabilities around 11–13°C. Updated model runs and Météo-France guidance ahead of the date will likely refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$272End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from GFS and regional models indicate an overnight low in Paris on September 24 near 11–13°C under persistent high pressure, with light northeasterly winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies limiting extreme radiative cooling. This setup follows several days of stable anticyclonic conditions that have kept temperatures close to or slightly above the 10.8°C climatological average low. Model spread arises mainly from differences in predicted cloud thickness and boundary-layer mixing overnight, which can shift the minimum by 1–2°C; traders appear to weigh these variables evenly given the tight clustering of implied probabilities around 11–13°C. Updated model runs and Météo-France guidance ahead of the date will likely refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$272End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from GFS and regional models indicate an overnight low in Paris on September 24 near 11–13°C under persistent high pressure, with light northeasterly winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies limiting extreme radiative cooling. This setup follows several days of stable anticyclonic conditions that have kept temperatures close to or slightly above the 10.8°C climatological average low. Model spread arises mainly from differences in predicted cloud thickness and boundary-layer mixing overnight, which can shift the minimum by 1–2°C; traders appear to weigh these variables evenly given the tight clustering of implied probabilities around 11–13°C. Updated model runs and Météo-France guidance ahead of the date will likely refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions