Official National Weather Service forecasts for New York City show the lowest temperature on September 24 centered in the mid-50s Fahrenheit, with Central Park projections around 53°F amid steady northeasterly winds and mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions. This setup favors the leading market outcomes in the 54-57°F range, as models indicate limited overnight radiative cooling under the prevailing high-pressure influence. Traders appear to assign modest probability to colder extremes below 47°F or warmer readings above 66°F, reflecting typical forecast uncertainty in short-range temperature predictions two days ahead. Updated model runs and National Weather Service briefings will provide the next key data points for refining these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on September 24?
Lowest temperature in NYC on September 24?
47°F or below 43%
66°F or higher 43%
54-55°F 40%
52-53°F 34%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
47°F or below
43%
48-49°F
31%
50-51°F
31%
52-53°F
34%
54-55°F
40%
56-57°F
23%
58-59°F
19%
60-61°F
24%
62-63°F
31%
64-65°F
31%
66°F or higher
43%
47°F or below 43%
66°F or higher 43%
54-55°F 40%
52-53°F 34%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
47°F or below
$0 Vol.
43%
48-49°F
$0 Vol.
31%
50-51°F
$0 Vol.
31%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
34%
54-55°F
$81 Vol.
40%
56-57°F
$60 Vol.
23%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
19%
60-61°F
$5 Vol.
24%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
31%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
31%
66°F or higher
$0 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts for New York City show the lowest temperature on September 24 centered in the mid-50s Fahrenheit, with Central Park projections around 53°F amid steady northeasterly winds and mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions. This setup favors the leading market outcomes in the 54-57°F range, as models indicate limited overnight radiative cooling under the prevailing high-pressure influence. Traders appear to assign modest probability to colder extremes below 47°F or warmer readings above 66°F, reflecting typical forecast uncertainty in short-range temperature predictions two days ahead. Updated model runs and National Weather Service briefings will provide the next key data points for refining these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$146End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts for New York City show the lowest temperature on September 24 centered in the mid-50s Fahrenheit, with Central Park projections around 53°F amid steady northeasterly winds and mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions. This setup favors the leading market outcomes in the 54-57°F range, as models indicate limited overnight radiative cooling under the prevailing high-pressure influence. Traders appear to assign modest probability to colder extremes below 47°F or warmer readings above 66°F, reflecting typical forecast uncertainty in short-range temperature predictions two days ahead. Updated model runs and National Weather Service briefings will provide the next key data points for refining these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$146End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official National Weather Service forecasts for New York City show the lowest temperature on September 24 centered in the mid-50s Fahrenheit, with Central Park projections around 53°F amid steady northeasterly winds and mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions. This setup favors the leading market outcomes in the 54-57°F range, as models indicate limited overnight radiative cooling under the prevailing high-pressure influence. Traders appear to assign modest probability to colder extremes below 47°F or warmer readings above 66°F, reflecting typical forecast uncertainty in short-range temperature predictions two days ahead. Updated model runs and National Weather Service briefings will provide the next key data points for refining these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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