Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models indicate Shanghai's overnight low on September 15 will likely range from 21–23°C, aligning with market-implied probabilities favoring 22–24°C outcomes. Mid-September seasonal cooling, driven by strengthening northeasterly winds and high-pressure dominance, promotes clear skies and enhanced nocturnal radiative cooling typical for the region. Historical September lows average near 20–22°C, providing climatological context, while current stable atmospheric conditions show no incoming fronts or typhoon influences that could depress temperatures further. Traders appear to weigh these model consensus runs against minor uncertainties in exact wind speeds and cloud cover, which could nudge the minimum by 1°C either direction before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 15?
23°C 32%
22°C 24%
26°C 17%
24°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
18°C or below
9%
19°C
12%
20°C
8%
21°C
14%
22°C
24%
23°C
32%
24°C
17%
25°C
11%
26°C
17%
27°C
14%
28°C or higher
7%
23°C 32%
22°C 24%
26°C 17%
24°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
18°C or below
$10 Vol.
9%
19°C
$40 Vol.
12%
20°C
$38 Vol.
8%
21°C
$18 Vol.
14%
22°C
$161 Vol.
24%
23°C
$35 Vol.
32%
24°C
$414 Vol.
17%
25°C
$18 Vol.
11%
26°C
$10 Vol.
17%
27°C
$10 Vol.
14%
28°C or higher
$10 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models indicate Shanghai's overnight low on September 15 will likely range from 21–23°C, aligning with market-implied probabilities favoring 22–24°C outcomes. Mid-September seasonal cooling, driven by strengthening northeasterly winds and high-pressure dominance, promotes clear skies and enhanced nocturnal radiative cooling typical for the region. Historical September lows average near 20–22°C, providing climatological context, while current stable atmospheric conditions show no incoming fronts or typhoon influences that could depress temperatures further. Traders appear to weigh these model consensus runs against minor uncertainties in exact wind speeds and cloud cover, which could nudge the minimum by 1°C either direction before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Volume
$764End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models indicate Shanghai's overnight low on September 15 will likely range from 21–23°C, aligning with market-implied probabilities favoring 22–24°C outcomes. Mid-September seasonal cooling, driven by strengthening northeasterly winds and high-pressure dominance, promotes clear skies and enhanced nocturnal radiative cooling typical for the region. Historical September lows average near 20–22°C, providing climatological context, while current stable atmospheric conditions show no incoming fronts or typhoon influences that could depress temperatures further. Traders appear to weigh these model consensus runs against minor uncertainties in exact wind speeds and cloud cover, which could nudge the minimum by 1°C either direction before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$764End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models indicate Shanghai's overnight low on September 15 will likely range from 21–23°C, aligning with market-implied probabilities favoring 22–24°C outcomes. Mid-September seasonal cooling, driven by strengthening northeasterly winds and high-pressure dominance, promotes clear skies and enhanced nocturnal radiative cooling typical for the region. Historical September lows average near 20–22°C, providing climatological context, while current stable atmospheric conditions show no incoming fronts or typhoon influences that could depress temperatures further. Traders appear to weigh these model consensus runs against minor uncertainties in exact wind speeds and cloud cover, which could nudge the minimum by 1°C either direction before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions