Recent forecasts from official monitoring agencies indicate a lowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 2 likely near 24°C, driven by the lingering influence of the East Asian monsoon, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity that limit nighttime radiative cooling. Persistent cloud cover and moderate northwest winds from recent heavy rain events are expected to moderate diurnal ranges, with model consensus favoring overnight lows of 23–24°C rather than sharper drops. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around these values reflects uncertainty in exact shower timing and local microclimate effects, while probabilities for extremes below 20°C or above 27°C remain lower given typical early-September climatology of 24–26°C lows under similar synoptic patterns. Updated model runs and official briefings will provide the next key data points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 2?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 2?
25°C 100%
27°C 90%
23°C 88%
20°C or below 86%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
20°C or below
86%
21°C
48%
22°C
19%
23°C
88%
24°C
85%
25°C
100%
26°C
86%
27°C
90%
28°C
48%
29°C
48%
30°C or higher
48%
25°C 100%
27°C 90%
23°C 88%
20°C or below 86%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
20°C or below
$5 Vol.
86%
21°C
$5 Vol.
48%
22°C
$5 Vol.
19%
23°C
$0 Vol.
88%
24°C
$0 Vol.
85%
25°C
$0 Vol.
100%
26°C
$0 Vol.
86%
27°C
$0 Vol.
90%
28°C
$0 Vol.
48%
29°C
$5 Vol.
48%
30°C or higher
$5 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from official monitoring agencies indicate a lowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 2 likely near 24°C, driven by the lingering influence of the East Asian monsoon, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity that limit nighttime radiative cooling. Persistent cloud cover and moderate northwest winds from recent heavy rain events are expected to moderate diurnal ranges, with model consensus favoring overnight lows of 23–24°C rather than sharper drops. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around these values reflects uncertainty in exact shower timing and local microclimate effects, while probabilities for extremes below 20°C or above 27°C remain lower given typical early-September climatology of 24–26°C lows under similar synoptic patterns. Updated model runs and official briefings will provide the next key data points.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$25End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from official monitoring agencies indicate a lowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 2 likely near 24°C, driven by the lingering influence of the East Asian monsoon, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity that limit nighttime radiative cooling. Persistent cloud cover and moderate northwest winds from recent heavy rain events are expected to moderate diurnal ranges, with model consensus favoring overnight lows of 23–24°C rather than sharper drops. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around these values reflects uncertainty in exact shower timing and local microclimate effects, while probabilities for extremes below 20°C or above 27°C remain lower given typical early-September climatology of 24–26°C lows under similar synoptic patterns. Updated model runs and official briefings will provide the next key data points.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from official monitoring agencies indicate a lowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 2 likely near 24°C, driven by the lingering influence of the East Asian monsoon, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity that limit nighttime radiative cooling. Persistent cloud cover and moderate northwest winds from recent heavy rain events are expected to moderate diurnal ranges, with model consensus favoring overnight lows of 23–24°C rather than sharper drops. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around these values reflects uncertainty in exact shower timing and local microclimate effects, while probabilities for extremes below 20°C or above 27°C remain lower given typical early-September climatology of 24–26°C lows under similar synoptic patterns. Updated model runs and official briefings will provide the next key data points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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