Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo near 21°C on September 13, driven by persistent overnight cloud cover and light northerly winds that limit radiative cooling under high humidity. This setup has held steady through the past 24 hours, with September 12's overcast conditions and residual moisture carrying forward to suppress temperature drops below the seasonal norm of roughly 20°C. Trader consensus heavily weights 21–22°C outcomes, reflecting model agreement on these thresholds while assigning lower probability to cooler air under clearer skies or warmer advection. Updated JMA observations early on the 13th will finalize the recorded low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 13?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 13?
22°C 47%
21°C 36%
23°C 12%
19°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
10%
20°C
7%
21°C
36%
22°C
47%
23°C
12%
24°C
3%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 47%
21°C 36%
23°C 12%
19°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
17°C or below
$110 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$49 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$0 Vol.
10%
20°C
$96 Vol.
7%
21°C
$538 Vol.
36%
22°C
$548 Vol.
47%
23°C
$395 Vol.
12%
24°C
$143 Vol.
3%
25°C
$49 Vol.
1%
26°C
$49 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$110 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo near 21°C on September 13, driven by persistent overnight cloud cover and light northerly winds that limit radiative cooling under high humidity. This setup has held steady through the past 24 hours, with September 12's overcast conditions and residual moisture carrying forward to suppress temperature drops below the seasonal norm of roughly 20°C. Trader consensus heavily weights 21–22°C outcomes, reflecting model agreement on these thresholds while assigning lower probability to cooler air under clearer skies or warmer advection. Updated JMA observations early on the 13th will finalize the recorded low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,086End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo near 21°C on September 13, driven by persistent overnight cloud cover and light northerly winds that limit radiative cooling under high humidity. This setup has held steady through the past 24 hours, with September 12's overcast conditions and residual moisture carrying forward to suppress temperature drops below the seasonal norm of roughly 20°C. Trader consensus heavily weights 21–22°C outcomes, reflecting model agreement on these thresholds while assigning lower probability to cooler air under clearer skies or warmer advection. Updated JMA observations early on the 13th will finalize the recorded low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,086End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo near 21°C on September 13, driven by persistent overnight cloud cover and light northerly winds that limit radiative cooling under high humidity. This setup has held steady through the past 24 hours, with September 12's overcast conditions and residual moisture carrying forward to suppress temperature drops below the seasonal norm of roughly 20°C. Trader consensus heavily weights 21–22°C outcomes, reflecting model agreement on these thresholds while assigning lower probability to cooler air under clearer skies or warmer advection. Updated JMA observations early on the 13th will finalize the recorded low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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