**Recent model runs and observational data show Toronto experiencing a transition to cooler, more unsettled conditions, with overnight lows influenced by increased cloud cover, potential showers, and variable wind patterns that limit radiative cooling.** Trader sentiment reflects genuine forecast uncertainty for the minimum temperature on August 26, with the near-even split between 19°C or higher (45%) and 9°C or below (44%) highlighting divergent ensemble guidance on whether a stronger cool-air advection or clearer skies will prevail overnight. Current surface observations indicate daytime highs in the low-to-mid 20s°C amid scattered showers and thunderstorms, setting up a boundary-layer environment where dew points, humidity, and wind speeds will determine how far temperatures drop after sunset. Historical climatology for late August places typical overnight lows near 17°C, but recent model spreads—particularly in how quickly any frontal boundary or moisture clears—create the wide probability distribution seen across specific temperature bins like 15–18°C. Upcoming short-range updates from Environment Canada and NOAA ensembles will likely narrow these ranges as the event approaches resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on August 26?
19°C or higher 94%
9°C or below 90%
12°C 44%
11°C 41%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
9°C or below
90%
10°C
40%
11°C
41%
12°C
44%
13°C
24%
14°C
23%
15°C
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
24%
19°C or higher
94%
19°C or higher 94%
9°C or below 90%
12°C 44%
11°C 41%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
9°C or below
$5 Vol.
90%
10°C
$5 Vol.
40%
11°C
$5 Vol.
41%
12°C
$5 Vol.
44%
13°C
$0 Vol.
24%
14°C
$0 Vol.
23%
15°C
$0 Vol.
26%
16°C
$0 Vol.
26%
17°C
$0 Vol.
26%
18°C
$0 Vol.
24%
19°C or higher
$5 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model runs and observational data show Toronto experiencing a transition to cooler, more unsettled conditions, with overnight lows influenced by increased cloud cover, potential showers, and variable wind patterns that limit radiative cooling.**
Trader sentiment reflects genuine forecast uncertainty for the minimum temperature on August 26, with the near-even split between 19°C or higher (45%) and 9°C or below (44%) highlighting divergent ensemble guidance on whether a stronger cool-air advection or clearer skies will prevail overnight. Current surface observations indicate daytime highs in the low-to-mid 20s°C amid scattered showers and thunderstorms, setting up a boundary-layer environment where dew points, humidity, and wind speeds will determine how far temperatures drop after sunset. Historical climatology for late August places typical overnight lows near 17°C, but recent model spreads—particularly in how quickly any frontal boundary or moisture clears—create the wide probability distribution seen across specific temperature bins like 15–18°C. Upcoming short-range updates from Environment Canada and NOAA ensembles will likely narrow these ranges as the event approaches resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model runs and observational data show Toronto experiencing a transition to cooler, more unsettled conditions, with overnight lows influenced by increased cloud cover, potential showers, and variable wind patterns that limit radiative cooling.**
Trader sentiment reflects genuine forecast uncertainty for the minimum temperature on August 26, with the near-even split between 19°C or higher (45%) and 9°C or below (44%) highlighting divergent ensemble guidance on whether a stronger cool-air advection or clearer skies will prevail overnight. Current surface observations indicate daytime highs in the low-to-mid 20s°C amid scattered showers and thunderstorms, setting up a boundary-layer environment where dew points, humidity, and wind speeds will determine how far temperatures drop after sunset. Historical climatology for late August places typical overnight lows near 17°C, but recent model spreads—particularly in how quickly any frontal boundary or moisture clears—create the wide probability distribution seen across specific temperature bins like 15–18°C. Upcoming short-range updates from Environment Canada and NOAA ensembles will likely narrow these ranges as the event approaches resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent model runs and observational data show Toronto experiencing a transition to cooler, more unsettled conditions, with overnight lows influenced by increased cloud cover, potential showers, and variable wind patterns that limit radiative cooling.** Trader sentiment reflects genuine forecast uncertainty for the minimum temperature on August 26, with the near-even split between 19°C or higher (45%) and 9°C or below (44%) highlighting divergent ensemble guidance on whether a stronger cool-air advection or clearer skies will prevail overnight. Current surface observations indicate daytime highs in the low-to-mid 20s°C amid scattered showers and thunderstorms, setting up a boundary-layer environment where dew points, humidity, and wind speeds will determine how far temperatures drop after sunset. Historical climatology for late August places typical overnight lows near 17°C, but recent model spreads—particularly in how quickly any frontal boundary or moisture clears—create the wide probability distribution seen across specific temperature bins like 15–18°C. Upcoming short-range updates from Environment Canada and NOAA ensembles will likely narrow these ranges as the event approaches resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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