**Forecasts for Warsaw on August 27 point to a nighttime low near 12°C under mild late-summer conditions.** Multiple sources, including BBC Weather and timeanddate.com, project a daily low around 12°C (54°F) with highs near 24°C, consistent with climatological August averages of roughly 12–13°C minimums. AccuWeather’s extended outlook similarly brackets overnight lows in the 11–16°C range for the period. The market’s tight clustering around 10–13°C (with 11°C and 12°C each near 28%) reflects this consensus while capturing forecast uncertainty from numerical weather prediction ensembles. Key differentiating factors include the degree of nocturnal radiative cooling under clear or partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds (around 8–13 km/h) that limit mixing, and modest variations in boundary-layer moisture. Clearer conditions favor the lower end (10–11°C), while increased cloud cover or slightly stronger flow supports 12–13°C. With resolution just two days away, traders are weighting the latest model runs and official guidance, where small shifts in predicted cloud timing or wind can swing the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical precedent shows late-August Warsaw lows rarely drop below 10°C without a stronger cold-air advection event, which current patterns do not indicate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 27?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 27?
7°C or below 33%
11°C 28%
12°C 28%
13°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
7°C or below
33%
8°C
1%
9°C
19%
10°C
22%
11°C
28%
12°C
28%
13°C
22%
14°C
10%
15°C
11%
16°C
12%
17°C or higher
2%
7°C or below 33%
11°C 28%
12°C 28%
13°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
7°C or below
$135 Vol.
33%
8°C
$200 Vol.
1%
9°C
$0 Vol.
19%
10°C
$0 Vol.
22%
11°C
$0 Vol.
28%
12°C
$0 Vol.
28%
13°C
$0 Vol.
22%
14°C
$0 Vol.
10%
15°C
$0 Vol.
11%
16°C
$23 Vol.
12%
17°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecasts for Warsaw on August 27 point to a nighttime low near 12°C under mild late-summer conditions.** Multiple sources, including BBC Weather and timeanddate.com, project a daily low around 12°C (54°F) with highs near 24°C, consistent with climatological August averages of roughly 12–13°C minimums. AccuWeather’s extended outlook similarly brackets overnight lows in the 11–16°C range for the period.
The market’s tight clustering around 10–13°C (with 11°C and 12°C each near 28%) reflects this consensus while capturing forecast uncertainty from numerical weather prediction ensembles. Key differentiating factors include the degree of nocturnal radiative cooling under clear or partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds (around 8–13 km/h) that limit mixing, and modest variations in boundary-layer moisture. Clearer conditions favor the lower end (10–11°C), while increased cloud cover or slightly stronger flow supports 12–13°C.
With resolution just two days away, traders are weighting the latest model runs and official guidance, where small shifts in predicted cloud timing or wind can swing the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical precedent shows late-August Warsaw lows rarely drop below 10°C without a stronger cold-air advection event, which current patterns do not indicate.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$363End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecasts for Warsaw on August 27 point to a nighttime low near 12°C under mild late-summer conditions.** Multiple sources, including BBC Weather and timeanddate.com, project a daily low around 12°C (54°F) with highs near 24°C, consistent with climatological August averages of roughly 12–13°C minimums. AccuWeather’s extended outlook similarly brackets overnight lows in the 11–16°C range for the period.
The market’s tight clustering around 10–13°C (with 11°C and 12°C each near 28%) reflects this consensus while capturing forecast uncertainty from numerical weather prediction ensembles. Key differentiating factors include the degree of nocturnal radiative cooling under clear or partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds (around 8–13 km/h) that limit mixing, and modest variations in boundary-layer moisture. Clearer conditions favor the lower end (10–11°C), while increased cloud cover or slightly stronger flow supports 12–13°C.
With resolution just two days away, traders are weighting the latest model runs and official guidance, where small shifts in predicted cloud timing or wind can swing the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical precedent shows late-August Warsaw lows rarely drop below 10°C without a stronger cold-air advection event, which current patterns do not indicate.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$363End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecasts for Warsaw on August 27 point to a nighttime low near 12°C under mild late-summer conditions.** Multiple sources, including BBC Weather and timeanddate.com, project a daily low around 12°C (54°F) with highs near 24°C, consistent with climatological August averages of roughly 12–13°C minimums. AccuWeather’s extended outlook similarly brackets overnight lows in the 11–16°C range for the period. The market’s tight clustering around 10–13°C (with 11°C and 12°C each near 28%) reflects this consensus while capturing forecast uncertainty from numerical weather prediction ensembles. Key differentiating factors include the degree of nocturnal radiative cooling under clear or partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds (around 8–13 km/h) that limit mixing, and modest variations in boundary-layer moisture. Clearer conditions favor the lower end (10–11°C), while increased cloud cover or slightly stronger flow supports 12–13°C. With resolution just two days away, traders are weighting the latest model runs and official guidance, where small shifts in predicted cloud timing or wind can swing the minimum by 1–2°C. Historical precedent shows late-August Warsaw lows rarely drop below 10°C without a stronger cold-air advection event, which current patterns do not indicate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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