Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a cooler-than-average air mass over the Northeast for August 25, with daytime highs in New York City most likely reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. This positioning stems from a progressive trough and northwesterly flow limiting southerly moisture and warmth, alongside a 20-50% chance of afternoon showers or clouds that cap surface heating. Historical August averages near 83°F provide context, yet the current 33-40% probability of below-normal temperatures through month-end aligns with trader emphasis on the 78-81°F brackets. Updated short-range model runs and NWS briefings remain key variables that could shift resolution odds before the daily maximum is recorded at official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on August 25?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 25?
78-79°F 45%
80-81°F 31%
76-77°F 16%
82-83°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
16%
78-79°F
45%
80-81°F
31%
82-83°F
7%
84-85°F
2%
86°F or higher
1%
78-79°F 45%
80-81°F 31%
76-77°F 16%
82-83°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
67°F or below
$108 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$96 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$140 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$146 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$98 Vol.
5%
76-77°F
$641 Vol.
16%
78-79°F
$822 Vol.
45%
80-81°F
$218 Vol.
31%
82-83°F
$234 Vol.
7%
84-85°F
$146 Vol.
2%
86°F or higher
$113 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a cooler-than-average air mass over the Northeast for August 25, with daytime highs in New York City most likely reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. This positioning stems from a progressive trough and northwesterly flow limiting southerly moisture and warmth, alongside a 20-50% chance of afternoon showers or clouds that cap surface heating. Historical August averages near 83°F provide context, yet the current 33-40% probability of below-normal temperatures through month-end aligns with trader emphasis on the 78-81°F brackets. Updated short-range model runs and NWS briefings remain key variables that could shift resolution odds before the daily maximum is recorded at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,763End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a cooler-than-average air mass over the Northeast for August 25, with daytime highs in New York City most likely reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. This positioning stems from a progressive trough and northwesterly flow limiting southerly moisture and warmth, alongside a 20-50% chance of afternoon showers or clouds that cap surface heating. Historical August averages near 83°F provide context, yet the current 33-40% probability of below-normal temperatures through month-end aligns with trader emphasis on the 78-81°F brackets. Updated short-range model runs and NWS briefings remain key variables that could shift resolution odds before the daily maximum is recorded at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,763End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a cooler-than-average air mass over the Northeast for August 25, with daytime highs in New York City most likely reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. This positioning stems from a progressive trough and northwesterly flow limiting southerly moisture and warmth, alongside a 20-50% chance of afternoon showers or clouds that cap surface heating. Historical August averages near 83°F provide context, yet the current 33-40% probability of below-normal temperatures through month-end aligns with trader emphasis on the 78-81°F brackets. Updated short-range model runs and NWS briefings remain key variables that could shift resolution odds before the daily maximum is recorded at official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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