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Lowest temperature in NYC on August 25?

icon for Lowest temperature in NYC on August 25?

Lowest temperature in NYC on August 25?

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

64-65°F 43%

66-67°F 32%

68-69°F 21%

62-63°F 8%

Polymarket
NEW

64-65°F 43%

66-67°F 32%

68-69°F 21%

62-63°F 8%

Polymarket
NEW

53°F or below

$5 Vol.

1%

54-55°F

$17 Vol.

1%

56-57°F

$10 Vol.

1%

58-59°F

$10 Vol.

4%

60-61°F

$82 Vol.

4%

62-63°F

$109 Vol.

8%

64-65°F

$10 Vol.

43%

66-67°F

$77 Vol.

32%

68-69°F

$173 Vol.

21%

70-71°F

$0 Vol.

5%

72°F or higher

$15 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on 64–67°F minimums in Central Park as the primary driver, reflecting the latest NWS and ensemble model runs that show a cooler air mass advecting into the region with light westerly winds and partly cloudy skies overnight into August 25. These conditions favor radiative cooling while the urban heat island and typical August dew points limit further drops, consistent with recent below-normal lows in the mid-60s after warmer mid-August readings. Model spread arises mainly from variable cloud cover and exact wind timing, which can shift the minimum by 2–3°F. NOAA and NWS updates through the evening of August 24 will refine the outlook ahead of official resolution based on verified observations.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga

This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$508
End Date
Aug 25, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on 64–67°F minimums in Central Park as the primary driver, reflecting the latest NWS and ensemble model runs that show a cooler air mass advecting into the region with light westerly winds and partly cloudy skies overnight into August 25. These conditions favor radiative cooling while the urban heat island and typical August dew points limit further drops, consistent with recent below-normal lows in the mid-60s after warmer mid-August readings. Model spread arises mainly from variable cloud cover and exact wind timing, which can shift the minimum by 2–3°F. NOAA and NWS updates through the evening of August 24 will refine the outlook ahead of official resolution based on verified observations.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga

This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$508
End Date
Aug 25, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 9:29 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in NYC on August 25?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "64-65°F" at 43%, followed by "66-67°F" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Lowest temperature in NYC on August 25?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 23, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in NYC on August 25?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in NYC on August 25?" is "64-65°F" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "66-67°F" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in NYC on August 25?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.