Forecast models from sources including the National Weather Service and private services indicate sunny conditions and southwest winds of 5–10 mph will drive strong daytime heating over Houston on August 23, supporting a daily maximum near 102 °F. Recent August 2026 observations show persistent above-normal temperatures, with highs reaching 98–100 °F in the prior week amid elevated dew points that amplify sensible heat. Historical climatology places the Aug 23 average high at 93 °F and the record at 102 °F, so current guidance aligns with the upper end of the distribution. Trader consensus reflected in the 53.5 % implied probability on 100–101 °F and 34.5 % on 98–99 °F incorporates residual model spread and the narrow margin between forecast highs and official station readings at Hobby or Intercontinental. An updated NWS forecast discussion or afternoon model run remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on August 23?
Highest temperature in Houston on August 23?
100-101°F 53%
98-99°F 33%
102-103°F 14%
104-105°F 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
93°F or below
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
3%
98-99°F
33%
100-101°F
53%
102-103°F
14%
104-105°F
4%
106-107°F
<1%
108-109°F
<1%
110-111°F
<1%
112°F or higher
<1%
100-101°F 53%
98-99°F 33%
102-103°F 14%
104-105°F 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
93°F or below
$113 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$105 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$201 Vol.
3%
98-99°F
$515 Vol.
33%
100-101°F
$346 Vol.
53%
102-103°F
$337 Vol.
14%
104-105°F
$199 Vol.
4%
106-107°F
$74 Vol.
<1%
108-109°F
$128 Vol.
<1%
110-111°F
$158 Vol.
<1%
112°F or higher
$284 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the National Weather Service and private services indicate sunny conditions and southwest winds of 5–10 mph will drive strong daytime heating over Houston on August 23, supporting a daily maximum near 102 °F. Recent August 2026 observations show persistent above-normal temperatures, with highs reaching 98–100 °F in the prior week amid elevated dew points that amplify sensible heat. Historical climatology places the Aug 23 average high at 93 °F and the record at 102 °F, so current guidance aligns with the upper end of the distribution. Trader consensus reflected in the 53.5 % implied probability on 100–101 °F and 34.5 % on 98–99 °F incorporates residual model spread and the narrow margin between forecast highs and official station readings at Hobby or Intercontinental. An updated NWS forecast discussion or afternoon model run remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 11:57 PM ET
Volume
$2,436End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the National Weather Service and private services indicate sunny conditions and southwest winds of 5–10 mph will drive strong daytime heating over Houston on August 23, supporting a daily maximum near 102 °F. Recent August 2026 observations show persistent above-normal temperatures, with highs reaching 98–100 °F in the prior week amid elevated dew points that amplify sensible heat. Historical climatology places the Aug 23 average high at 93 °F and the record at 102 °F, so current guidance aligns with the upper end of the distribution. Trader consensus reflected in the 53.5 % implied probability on 100–101 °F and 34.5 % on 98–99 °F incorporates residual model spread and the narrow margin between forecast highs and official station readings at Hobby or Intercontinental. An updated NWS forecast discussion or afternoon model run remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,436End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including the National Weather Service and private services indicate sunny conditions and southwest winds of 5–10 mph will drive strong daytime heating over Houston on August 23, supporting a daily maximum near 102 °F. Recent August 2026 observations show persistent above-normal temperatures, with highs reaching 98–100 °F in the prior week amid elevated dew points that amplify sensible heat. Historical climatology places the Aug 23 average high at 93 °F and the record at 102 °F, so current guidance aligns with the upper end of the distribution. Trader consensus reflected in the 53.5 % implied probability on 100–101 °F and 34.5 % on 98–99 °F incorporates residual model spread and the narrow margin between forecast highs and official station readings at Hobby or Intercontinental. An updated NWS forecast discussion or afternoon model run remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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