Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and national services, show a high near 27–28°C in Milan on August 25, driven by increased cloud cover and scattered showers or thunderstorms expected during the day that limit solar heating. This setup has produced the current market concentration on 27°C, with supporting probabilities for 26°C and 28°C reflecting minor timing differences in precipitation and model spread in maximum values. Late-August climatology for the Po Valley typically features highs of 28–30°C under clearer conditions, but the near-term pattern favors modest suppression of peak temperatures. Updated model runs and any shifts in the rain timing over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could adjust implied probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on August 25?
Highest temperature in Milan on August 25?
27°C 38%
26°C 28%
28°C 26%
29°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
2%
25°C
7%
26°C
28%
27°C
38%
28°C
26%
29°C
11%
30°C or higher
3%
27°C 38%
26°C 28%
28°C 26%
29°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
20°C or below
$12 Vol.
1%
21°C
$0 Vol.
1%
22°C
$0 Vol.
1%
23°C
$0 Vol.
2%
24°C
$5 Vol.
2%
25°C
$107 Vol.
7%
26°C
$140 Vol.
28%
27°C
$34 Vol.
38%
28°C
$0 Vol.
26%
29°C
$17 Vol.
11%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and national services, show a high near 27–28°C in Milan on August 25, driven by increased cloud cover and scattered showers or thunderstorms expected during the day that limit solar heating. This setup has produced the current market concentration on 27°C, with supporting probabilities for 26°C and 28°C reflecting minor timing differences in precipitation and model spread in maximum values. Late-August climatology for the Po Valley typically features highs of 28–30°C under clearer conditions, but the near-term pattern favors modest suppression of peak temperatures. Updated model runs and any shifts in the rain timing over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could adjust implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$315End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and national services, show a high near 27–28°C in Milan on August 25, driven by increased cloud cover and scattered showers or thunderstorms expected during the day that limit solar heating. This setup has produced the current market concentration on 27°C, with supporting probabilities for 26°C and 28°C reflecting minor timing differences in precipitation and model spread in maximum values. Late-August climatology for the Po Valley typically features highs of 28–30°C under clearer conditions, but the near-term pattern favors modest suppression of peak temperatures. Updated model runs and any shifts in the rain timing over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could adjust implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$315End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and national services, show a high near 27–28°C in Milan on August 25, driven by increased cloud cover and scattered showers or thunderstorms expected during the day that limit solar heating. This setup has produced the current market concentration on 27°C, with supporting probabilities for 26°C and 28°C reflecting minor timing differences in precipitation and model spread in maximum values. Late-August climatology for the Po Valley typically features highs of 28–30°C under clearer conditions, but the near-term pattern favors modest suppression of peak temperatures. Updated model runs and any shifts in the rain timing over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could adjust implied probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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