Official MetService and international model consensus for Wellington on September 21 shows overnight minimum temperatures of 6–9°C under northerly winds of 20–30 knots ahead of an approaching front, with clear to partly cloudy skies limiting radiational cooling. These conditions align with late-spring climatology, where typical minima hover near 8°C, but the current setup favors values clustering around 7°C as the most probable reading. Southerly shifts and showers expected from September 22 onward introduce minor downside risk for slightly cooler readings if winds back earlier than anticipated. Traders are weighting the 7°C outcome highest at 60.5% implied probability, reflecting the tight forecast spread and limited model divergence for the next 24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 21?
5°C 80%
6°C 79%
3°C or below <1%
4°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
3°C or below
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
80%
6°C
79%
7°C
-
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C or higher
<1%
5°C 80%
6°C 79%
3°C or below <1%
4°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
3°C or below
$6 Vol.
<1%
4°C
$6 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$0 Vol.
80%
6°C
$0 Vol.
79%
7°C
$52 Vol.
-
8°C
$211 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$372 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$37 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$37 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$37 Vol.
<1%
13°C or higher
$37 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official MetService and international model consensus for Wellington on September 21 shows overnight minimum temperatures of 6–9°C under northerly winds of 20–30 knots ahead of an approaching front, with clear to partly cloudy skies limiting radiational cooling. These conditions align with late-spring climatology, where typical minima hover near 8°C, but the current setup favors values clustering around 7°C as the most probable reading. Southerly shifts and showers expected from September 22 onward introduce minor downside risk for slightly cooler readings if winds back earlier than anticipated. Traders are weighting the 7°C outcome highest at 60.5% implied probability, reflecting the tight forecast spread and limited model divergence for the next 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$795End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official MetService and international model consensus for Wellington on September 21 shows overnight minimum temperatures of 6–9°C under northerly winds of 20–30 knots ahead of an approaching front, with clear to partly cloudy skies limiting radiational cooling. These conditions align with late-spring climatology, where typical minima hover near 8°C, but the current setup favors values clustering around 7°C as the most probable reading. Southerly shifts and showers expected from September 22 onward introduce minor downside risk for slightly cooler readings if winds back earlier than anticipated. Traders are weighting the 7°C outcome highest at 60.5% implied probability, reflecting the tight forecast spread and limited model divergence for the next 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$795End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official MetService and international model consensus for Wellington on September 21 shows overnight minimum temperatures of 6–9°C under northerly winds of 20–30 knots ahead of an approaching front, with clear to partly cloudy skies limiting radiational cooling. These conditions align with late-spring climatology, where typical minima hover near 8°C, but the current setup favors values clustering around 7°C as the most probable reading. Southerly shifts and showers expected from September 22 onward introduce minor downside risk for slightly cooler readings if winds back earlier than anticipated. Traders are weighting the 7°C outcome highest at 60.5% implied probability, reflecting the tight forecast spread and limited model divergence for the next 24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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