**Recent cold air advection and radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are the main drivers pushing trader consensus toward a minimum temperature in the 17–19°C range for Zhengzhou on August 29, 2026.** Official and model guidance consistently shows northerly to northeasterly flow bringing cooler, drier air, with forecast overnight lows centered near 20–23°C but with notable spread from local variations in cloud cover and wind speed. Historical August minima in Zhengzhou have recently trended 17–23°C, and the current episode features the highest temperatures dropping below 30°C amid this cooling. The tight clustering of implied probabilities (19°C at 51%, 17°C at 46%, 15°C or below at 43%) reflects genuine uncertainty in the precise minimum: differences of 2°C hinge on the exact strength of nocturnal radiative cooling, boundary-layer mixing, and whether any residual cloudiness or light winds reduce heat loss. Higher outcomes (20°C+) carry negligible market weight because current observations and short-term guidance favor further cooling overnight. Traders are weighting official meteorological agency forecasts and real-time station data most heavily, with the market acting as an aggregated assessment of model consensus and observational uncertainty ahead of final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Zhengzhou on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Zhengzhou on August 29?
15°C or below 86%
17°C 46%
16°C 36%
18°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
15°C or below
86%
16°C
36%
17°C
46%
18°C
9%
19°C
51%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C or higher
1%
15°C or below 86%
17°C 46%
16°C 36%
18°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
15°C or below
$35 Vol.
86%
16°C
$45 Vol.
36%
17°C
$175 Vol.
46%
18°C
$131 Vol.
9%
19°C
$368 Vol.
51%
20°C
$181 Vol.
1%
21°C
$814 Vol.
1%
22°C
$306 Vol.
1%
23°C
$402 Vol.
1%
24°C
$247 Vol.
1%
25°C or higher
$67 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent cold air advection and radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are the main drivers pushing trader consensus toward a minimum temperature in the 17–19°C range for Zhengzhou on August 29, 2026.** Official and model guidance consistently shows northerly to northeasterly flow bringing cooler, drier air, with forecast overnight lows centered near 20–23°C but with notable spread from local variations in cloud cover and wind speed.
Historical August minima in Zhengzhou have recently trended 17–23°C, and the current episode features the highest temperatures dropping below 30°C amid this cooling. The tight clustering of implied probabilities (19°C at 51%, 17°C at 46%, 15°C or below at 43%) reflects genuine uncertainty in the precise minimum: differences of 2°C hinge on the exact strength of nocturnal radiative cooling, boundary-layer mixing, and whether any residual cloudiness or light winds reduce heat loss. Higher outcomes (20°C+) carry negligible market weight because current observations and short-term guidance favor further cooling overnight.
Traders are weighting official meteorological agency forecasts and real-time station data most heavily, with the market acting as an aggregated assessment of model consensus and observational uncertainty ahead of final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,771End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhccResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent cold air advection and radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are the main drivers pushing trader consensus toward a minimum temperature in the 17–19°C range for Zhengzhou on August 29, 2026.** Official and model guidance consistently shows northerly to northeasterly flow bringing cooler, drier air, with forecast overnight lows centered near 20–23°C but with notable spread from local variations in cloud cover and wind speed.
Historical August minima in Zhengzhou have recently trended 17–23°C, and the current episode features the highest temperatures dropping below 30°C amid this cooling. The tight clustering of implied probabilities (19°C at 51%, 17°C at 46%, 15°C or below at 43%) reflects genuine uncertainty in the precise minimum: differences of 2°C hinge on the exact strength of nocturnal radiative cooling, boundary-layer mixing, and whether any residual cloudiness or light winds reduce heat loss. Higher outcomes (20°C+) carry negligible market weight because current observations and short-term guidance favor further cooling overnight.
Traders are weighting official meteorological agency forecasts and real-time station data most heavily, with the market acting as an aggregated assessment of model consensus and observational uncertainty ahead of final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,771End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhccResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent cold air advection and radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are the main drivers pushing trader consensus toward a minimum temperature in the 17–19°C range for Zhengzhou on August 29, 2026.** Official and model guidance consistently shows northerly to northeasterly flow bringing cooler, drier air, with forecast overnight lows centered near 20–23°C but with notable spread from local variations in cloud cover and wind speed. Historical August minima in Zhengzhou have recently trended 17–23°C, and the current episode features the highest temperatures dropping below 30°C amid this cooling. The tight clustering of implied probabilities (19°C at 51%, 17°C at 46%, 15°C or below at 43%) reflects genuine uncertainty in the precise minimum: differences of 2°C hinge on the exact strength of nocturnal radiative cooling, boundary-layer mixing, and whether any residual cloudiness or light winds reduce heat loss. Higher outcomes (20°C+) carry negligible market weight because current observations and short-term guidance favor further cooling overnight. Traders are weighting official meteorological agency forecasts and real-time station data most heavily, with the market acting as an aggregated assessment of model consensus and observational uncertainty ahead of final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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