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Elections·Trump

NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·Trump

NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

Micah Lasher 100.0%

Jack Schlossberg <1%

Alex Bores <1%

Erik Bottcher <1%

Polymarket

$852,223 Vol.

Micah Lasher 100.0%

Jack Schlossberg <1%

Alex Bores <1%

Erik Bottcher <1%

Polymarket

$852,223 Vol.

Jack Schlossberg

$41,269 Vol.

No

Alex Bores

$184,449 Vol.

No

Erik Bottcher

$6,034 Vol.

No

Carolyn Maloney

$6,203 Vol.

No

Andrew Cuomo

$4,826 Vol.

No

Brad Hoylman-Sigal

$8,870 Vol.

No

Keith Powers

$7,190 Vol.

No

Gale Brewer

$5,697 Vol.

No

Brad Lander

$85,294 Vol.

No

Micah Lasher

$262,973 Vol.

Yes

Cameron Kasky

$7,198 Vol.

No

Lina Khan

$42,436 Vol.

No

Julie Menin

$26,994 Vol.

No

Chelsea Clinton

$11,856 Vol.

No

Liam Elkind

$6,301 Vol.

No

Scott Stringer

$60,602 Vol.

No

Liz Krueger

$63,051 Vol.

No

Cynthia Nixon

$4,949 Vol.

No

George Conway

$16,030 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Micah Lasher’s commanding lead in the NY-12 Democratic primary reflects recent polling gains among the district’s older voters—who are projected to comprise 65-75% of the June 23 electorate—combined with his extensive state legislative record and endorsements from figures such as Michael Bloomberg. Assemblymember Alex Bores trails as the main challenger, drawing support for his focus on artificial intelligence regulation and tech-sector backing, though he has not closed the gap in head-to-head surveys. A crowded field featuring Jack Schlossberg, George Conway, and others remains fragmented at negligible levels, with a recent five-candidate debate highlighting contrasts over experience, outside spending, and policy priorities. The primary’s proximity has consolidated trader consensus around the two frontrunners amid stable voter preferences.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$852,223
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 21, 2025, 10:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Micah Lasher’s commanding lead in the NY-12 Democratic primary reflects recent polling gains among the district’s older voters—who are projected to comprise 65-75% of the June 23 electorate—combined with his extensive state legislative record and endorsements from figures such as Michael Bloomberg. Assemblymember Alex Bores trails as the main challenger, drawing support for his focus on artificial intelligence regulation and tech-sector backing, though he has not closed the gap in head-to-head surveys. A crowded field featuring Jack Schlossberg, George Conway, and others remains fragmented at negligible levels, with a recent five-candidate debate highlighting contrasts over experience, outside spending, and policy priorities. The primary’s proximity has consolidated trader consensus around the two frontrunners amid stable voter preferences.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$852,223
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 21, 2025, 10:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 19 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Micah Lasher" at 100%, followed by "Jack Schlossberg" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $852.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 21, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 19 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Micah Lasher" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jack Schlossberg" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.