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Politics·Trump

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

icon for Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
Politics·Trump

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

$1,398,891 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,398,891 Vol.

Polymarket

Kristi Noem

$97,520 Vol.

32%

Dan Scavino

$137 Vol.

29%

Howard Lutnick

$94,437 Vol.

24%

Kash Patel

$303,520 Vol.

24%

Susie Wiles

$55,831 Vol.

24%

David Sacks

$9,151 Vol.

22%

Lee Zeldin

$31,580 Vol.

21%

Pete Hegseth

$125,515 Vol.

20%

Russell Vought

$284 Vol.

18%

Markwayne Mullin

$2,631 Vol.

27%

John Ratcliffe

$554 Vol.

14%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$90,835 Vol.

13%

Tom Homan

$187 Vol.

26%

Stephen Miller

$3,769 Vol.

12%

Marco Rubio

$19,710 Vol.

8%

Scott Bessent

$7,892 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.The second Trump administration has recorded unusually high turnover among political appointees in its first 18 months, with over 930 non-Senate-confirmed officials departing—more than double the pace seen under recent predecessors—concentrated in agencies such as Homeland Security, Commerce, and Justice. Multiple cabinet-level changes occurred in spring 2026, including the firings of Kristi Noem at DHS and Pam Bondi at the Justice Department, along with Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s exit from Labor and Tulsi Gabbard’s resignation from the Director of National Intelligence role for family reasons. Additional departures include White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt in August and Army Secretary Dan Driscoll at the end of that month amid internal tensions. Factors such as policy implementation demands, performance reviews, personal circumstances, and preparations for the November midterms continue to shape staffing dynamics through 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$1,398,891
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 3:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.The second Trump administration has recorded unusually high turnover among political appointees in its first 18 months, with over 930 non-Senate-confirmed officials departing—more than double the pace seen under recent predecessors—concentrated in agencies such as Homeland Security, Commerce, and Justice. Multiple cabinet-level changes occurred in spring 2026, including the firings of Kristi Noem at DHS and Pam Bondi at the Justice Department, along with Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s exit from Labor and Tulsi Gabbard’s resignation from the Director of National Intelligence role for family reasons. Additional departures include White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt in August and Army Secretary Dan Driscoll at the end of that month amid internal tensions. Factors such as policy implementation demands, performance reviews, personal circumstances, and preparations for the November midterms continue to shape staffing dynamics through 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$1,398,891
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 3:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Karoline Leavitt" at 100%, followed by "Tulsi Gabbard" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?" has generated $1.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?" is "Karoline Leavitt" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tulsi Gabbard" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.