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Politics·Trump

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

icon for Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
Politics·Trump

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

$1,400,565 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,400,565 Vol.

Polymarket

Kristi Noem

$97,520 Vol.

40%

Dan Scavino

$137 Vol.

29%

Howard Lutnick

$94,437 Vol.

25%

Pete Hegseth

$126,658 Vol.

24%

Kash Patel

$304,006 Vol.

24%

Susie Wiles

$55,831 Vol.

24%

Lee Zeldin

$31,610 Vol.

27%

David Sacks

$9,151 Vol.

22%

Markwayne Mullin

$2,631 Vol.

27%

Tom Homan

$187 Vol.

26%

John Ratcliffe

$554 Vol.

13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$90,850 Vol.

13%

Stephen Miller

$3,769 Vol.

12%

Russell Vought

$284 Vol.

17%

Scott Bessent

$7,892 Vol.

9%

Marco Rubio

$19,710 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.High turnover among political appointees has defined the second Trump administration through mid-2026, with over 930 non-Senate-confirmed officials departing in the first 18 months—more than double the pace under recent predecessors. Cabinet-level exits include firings or resignations of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Attorney General Pam Bondi, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, alongside White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt's planned departure at the end of August for family reasons. Drivers include agency-specific pressures on immigration enforcement and legal matters, personal circumstances, and internal frictions ahead of the 2026 midterms. Senate-confirmed roles have seen steadier retention so far, though elevated attrition in departments such as DHS and Commerce informs trader assessments of further changes before the 2027 resolution window.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$1,400,565
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 3:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.High turnover among political appointees has defined the second Trump administration through mid-2026, with over 930 non-Senate-confirmed officials departing in the first 18 months—more than double the pace under recent predecessors. Cabinet-level exits include firings or resignations of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Attorney General Pam Bondi, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, alongside White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt's planned departure at the end of August for family reasons. Drivers include agency-specific pressures on immigration enforcement and legal matters, personal circumstances, and internal frictions ahead of the 2026 midterms. Senate-confirmed roles have seen steadier retention so far, though elevated attrition in departments such as DHS and Commerce informs trader assessments of further changes before the 2027 resolution window.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$1,400,565
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 3:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Karoline Leavitt" at 100%, followed by "Tulsi Gabbard" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?" has generated $1.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?" is "Karoline Leavitt" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tulsi Gabbard" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.