**Current forecasts from multiple sources, including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models, indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 2, 2026, most likely near 25°C.** This aligns with the market's leading outcomes at 25°C (47.5%) and 24°C (31.5%), reflecting trader consensus on modest overnight cooling amid lingering summer conditions. Persistent high pressure and warm, humid air masses are sustaining elevated nighttime temperatures, with dew points remaining high (around 22–24°C) and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Typical early-September climatology shows average lows near 22–23°C, but 2026's extended residual heat—driven by the same patterns producing daytime highs of 30–32°C—has shifted the distribution upward. Recent JMA outlooks highlight above-normal warmth persisting into early September, with minimal frontal activity or typhoon influence expected before mid-month. Model agreement across short-range guidance supports a narrow range centered on 24–26°C for the daily minimum, with lower probabilities assigned to 22°C or below due to the absence of significant cooling mechanisms. Upcoming updates to regional forecasts and any shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns over the next 48 hours represent the key variables that could refine these implied probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Tokyo le 2 septembre ?
La température la plus basse à Tokyo le 2 septembre ?
25°C 48%
24°C 32%
26°C 20%
22°C 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
2 sept. 2026
20°C or below
2%
21°C
8%
22°C
10%
23°C
8%
24°C
32%
25°C
48%
26°C
20%
27°C
9%
28°C
9%
29°C
4%
30°C or higher
4%
25°C 48%
24°C 32%
26°C 20%
22°C 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
2 sept. 2026
20°C or below
$20 Vol.
2%
21°C
$5 Vol.
8%
22°C
$40 Vol.
10%
23°C
$20 Vol.
8%
24°C
$41 Vol.
32%
25°C
$55 Vol.
48%
26°C
$100 Vol.
20%
27°C
$48 Vol.
9%
28°C
$5 Vol.
9%
29°C
$20 Vol.
4%
30°C or higher
$20 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple sources, including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models, indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 2, 2026, most likely near 25°C.** This aligns with the market's leading outcomes at 25°C (47.5%) and 24°C (31.5%), reflecting trader consensus on modest overnight cooling amid lingering summer conditions.
Persistent high pressure and warm, humid air masses are sustaining elevated nighttime temperatures, with dew points remaining high (around 22–24°C) and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Typical early-September climatology shows average lows near 22–23°C, but 2026's extended residual heat—driven by the same patterns producing daytime highs of 30–32°C—has shifted the distribution upward. Recent JMA outlooks highlight above-normal warmth persisting into early September, with minimal frontal activity or typhoon influence expected before mid-month.
Model agreement across short-range guidance supports a narrow range centered on 24–26°C for the daily minimum, with lower probabilities assigned to 22°C or below due to the absence of significant cooling mechanisms. Upcoming updates to regional forecasts and any shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns over the next 48 hours represent the key variables that could refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$374Date de fin
2 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple sources, including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models, indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 2, 2026, most likely near 25°C.** This aligns with the market's leading outcomes at 25°C (47.5%) and 24°C (31.5%), reflecting trader consensus on modest overnight cooling amid lingering summer conditions.
Persistent high pressure and warm, humid air masses are sustaining elevated nighttime temperatures, with dew points remaining high (around 22–24°C) and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Typical early-September climatology shows average lows near 22–23°C, but 2026's extended residual heat—driven by the same patterns producing daytime highs of 30–32°C—has shifted the distribution upward. Recent JMA outlooks highlight above-normal warmth persisting into early September, with minimal frontal activity or typhoon influence expected before mid-month.
Model agreement across short-range guidance supports a narrow range centered on 24–26°C for the daily minimum, with lower probabilities assigned to 22°C or below due to the absence of significant cooling mechanisms. Upcoming updates to regional forecasts and any shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns over the next 48 hours represent the key variables that could refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$374Date de fin
2 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from multiple sources, including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models, indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 2, 2026, most likely near 25°C.** This aligns with the market's leading outcomes at 25°C (47.5%) and 24°C (31.5%), reflecting trader consensus on modest overnight cooling amid lingering summer conditions. Persistent high pressure and warm, humid air masses are sustaining elevated nighttime temperatures, with dew points remaining high (around 22–24°C) and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Typical early-September climatology shows average lows near 22–23°C, but 2026's extended residual heat—driven by the same patterns producing daytime highs of 30–32°C—has shifted the distribution upward. Recent JMA outlooks highlight above-normal warmth persisting into early September, with minimal frontal activity or typhoon influence expected before mid-month. Model agreement across short-range guidance supports a narrow range centered on 24–26°C for the daily minimum, with lower probabilities assigned to 22°C or below due to the absence of significant cooling mechanisms. Upcoming updates to regional forecasts and any shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns over the next 48 hours represent the key variables that could refine these implied probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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