North Dakota’s at-large congressional district remains structurally Republican, with a Cook PVI near R+20 and no Democratic statewide win since 2012. Incumbent Julie Fedorchak secured renomination on June 9 by defeating challenger Alex Balazs, setting up a November rematch against Democrat Trygve Hammer. The state’s rural electorate, energy-sector alignment, and consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent House races underpin the 93.8% implied probability. Trader consensus reflects these baseline conditions rather than short-term polling. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen scandal, health event, or national political realignment large enough to overcome the district’s entrenched partisan lean before November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants ND-AL
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants ND-AL
$39,938 Vol.
$39,938 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
94%
Parti démocrate
6%
$39,938 Vol.
$39,938 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$23,604 Vol.
94%
Parti démocrate
$16,334 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ND-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).North Dakota’s at-large congressional district remains structurally Republican, with a Cook PVI near R+20 and no Democratic statewide win since 2012. Incumbent Julie Fedorchak secured renomination on June 9 by defeating challenger Alex Balazs, setting up a November rematch against Democrat Trygve Hammer. The state’s rural electorate, energy-sector alignment, and consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent House races underpin the 93.8% implied probability. Trader consensus reflects these baseline conditions rather than short-term polling. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen scandal, health event, or national political realignment large enough to overcome the district’s entrenched partisan lean before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ND-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$39,938Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ND-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).North Dakota’s at-large congressional district remains structurally Republican, with a Cook PVI near R+20 and no Democratic statewide win since 2012. Incumbent Julie Fedorchak secured renomination on June 9 by defeating challenger Alex Balazs, setting up a November rematch against Democrat Trygve Hammer. The state’s rural electorate, energy-sector alignment, and consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent House races underpin the 93.8% implied probability. Trader consensus reflects these baseline conditions rather than short-term polling. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen scandal, health event, or national political realignment large enough to overcome the district’s entrenched partisan lean before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ND-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,938Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...North Dakota’s at-large congressional district remains structurally Republican, with a Cook PVI near R+20 and no Democratic statewide win since 2012. Incumbent Julie Fedorchak secured renomination on June 9 by defeating challenger Alex Balazs, setting up a November rematch against Democrat Trygve Hammer. The state’s rural electorate, energy-sector alignment, and consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent House races underpin the 93.8% implied probability. Trader consensus reflects these baseline conditions rather than short-term polling. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen scandal, health event, or national political realignment large enough to overcome the district’s entrenched partisan lean before November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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