Amid the 2026 US-Israel-Iran war, sparked by American and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure in mid-March, Tehran has retaliated with missile and drone barrages targeting Gulf energy facilities, including Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil processing plant and UAE refineries. A fragile US-brokered ceasefire took hold on April 7, yet sporadic attacks persisted, with Gulf states intercepting projectiles on April 8 and a drone exploding over northern Israel on April 14. Satellite imagery that day revealed Iran excavating to retrieve trapped missile launchers underground. US naval restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz signal blockade risks, while Pakistan-mediated peace talks loom as potential de-escalators before April 30.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourContre quoi l'Iran mènera-t-il une action militaire d'ici le 30 avril ?
Contre quoi l'Iran mènera-t-il une action militaire d'ici le 30 avril ?
$464,214 Vol.
30 avr. 2026
Raffinerie de Ruwais
25%
Zone industrielle de Ras Laffan
22%
Ras Tanura
19%
Champ de Khurais
19%
Champ/Complexe de traitement d'Habshan
14%
Raffinerie d’Al Zour
13%
Installation de traitement de pétrole d'Abqaiq
11%
Champ de Ghawar
11%
Champ de Safaniya
10%
Champ Léviathan
8%
Burj Khalifa
3%
Dimona (Centre de recherche nucléaire du Néguev Shimon Peres)
2%
$464,214 Vol.
Raffinerie de Ruwais
$39,648 Vol.
25%
Zone industrielle de Ras Laffan
$35,857 Vol.
22%
Ras Tanura
$37,991 Vol.
19%
Champ de Khurais
$14,786 Vol.
19%
Champ/Complexe de traitement d'Habshan
$46,277 Vol.
14%
Raffinerie d’Al Zour
$30,213 Vol.
13%
Installation de traitement de pétrole d'Abqaiq
$38,341 Vol.
11%
Champ de Ghawar
$12,229 Vol.
11%
Champ de Safaniya
$11,512 Vol.
10%
Champ Léviathan
$7,662 Vol.
8%
Burj Khalifa
$8,228 Vol.
3%
Dimona (Centre de recherche nucléaire du Néguev Shimon Peres)
$78,280 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the 2026 US-Israel-Iran war, sparked by American and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure in mid-March, Tehran has retaliated with missile and drone barrages targeting Gulf energy facilities, including Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil processing plant and UAE refineries. A fragile US-brokered ceasefire took hold on April 7, yet sporadic attacks persisted, with Gulf states intercepting projectiles on April 8 and a drone exploding over northern Israel on April 14. Satellite imagery that day revealed Iran excavating to retrieve trapped missile launchers underground. US naval restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz signal blockade risks, while Pakistan-mediated peace talks loom as potential de-escalators before April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Marché ouvert : Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$464,214Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the 2026 US-Israel-Iran war, sparked by American and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure in mid-March, Tehran has retaliated with missile and drone barrages targeting Gulf energy facilities, including Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil processing plant and UAE refineries. A fragile US-brokered ceasefire took hold on April 7, yet sporadic attacks persisted, with Gulf states intercepting projectiles on April 8 and a drone exploding over northern Israel on April 14. Satellite imagery that day revealed Iran excavating to retrieve trapped missile launchers underground. US naval restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz signal blockade risks, while Pakistan-mediated peace talks loom as potential de-escalators before April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volume
$464,214Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the 2026 US-Israel-Iran war, sparked by American and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and military infrastructure in mid-March, Tehran has retaliated with missile and drone barrages targeting Gulf energy facilities, including Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil processing plant and UAE refineries. A fragile US-brokered ceasefire took hold on April 7, yet sporadic attacks persisted, with Gulf states intercepting projectiles on April 8 and a drone exploding over northern Israel on April 14. Satellite imagery that day revealed Iran excavating to retrieve trapped missile launchers underground. US naval restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz signal blockade risks, while Pakistan-mediated peace talks loom as potential de-escalators before April 30.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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