The ECB's ongoing tightening cycle amid elevated energy-driven inflation underpins the 95% market-implied odds against a 2026 rate cut. Persistent geopolitical pressures from Middle East conflicts have kept oil prices elevated, prompting the central bank to raise its deposit facility rate to 2.25% in June and another 25 basis points expected on September 10, with futures pricing further hikes or a hold through year-end. Staff projections show headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026 before easing toward the 2% target only in 2027, while labor markets remain resilient enough to limit second-round effects. This path aligns with analyst consensus for a terminal rate near 2.50-2.75%. A swift resolution of energy shocks or sharper growth slowdown could still open the door to earlier easing.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
5% संभावना
$32,739 वॉल्यूम
$32,739 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
5% संभावना
$32,739 वॉल्यूम
$32,739 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ECB's ongoing tightening cycle amid elevated energy-driven inflation underpins the 95% market-implied odds against a 2026 rate cut. Persistent geopolitical pressures from Middle East conflicts have kept oil prices elevated, prompting the central bank to raise its deposit facility rate to 2.25% in June and another 25 basis points expected on September 10, with futures pricing further hikes or a hold through year-end. Staff projections show headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026 before easing toward the 2% target only in 2027, while labor markets remain resilient enough to limit second-round effects. This path aligns with analyst consensus for a terminal rate near 2.50-2.75%. A swift resolution of energy shocks or sharper growth slowdown could still open the door to earlier easing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$32,739समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ECB's ongoing tightening cycle amid elevated energy-driven inflation underpins the 95% market-implied odds against a 2026 rate cut. Persistent geopolitical pressures from Middle East conflicts have kept oil prices elevated, prompting the central bank to raise its deposit facility rate to 2.25% in June and another 25 basis points expected on September 10, with futures pricing further hikes or a hold through year-end. Staff projections show headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026 before easing toward the 2% target only in 2027, while labor markets remain resilient enough to limit second-round effects. This path aligns with analyst consensus for a terminal rate near 2.50-2.75%. A swift resolution of energy shocks or sharper growth slowdown could still open the door to earlier easing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$32,739समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...The ECB's ongoing tightening cycle amid elevated energy-driven inflation underpins the 95% market-implied odds against a 2026 rate cut. Persistent geopolitical pressures from Middle East conflicts have kept oil prices elevated, prompting the central bank to raise its deposit facility rate to 2.25% in June and another 25 basis points expected on September 10, with futures pricing further hikes or a hold through year-end. Staff projections show headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026 before easing toward the 2% target only in 2027, while labor markets remain resilient enough to limit second-round effects. This path aligns with analyst consensus for a terminal rate near 2.50-2.75%. A swift resolution of energy shocks or sharper growth slowdown could still open the door to earlier easing.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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