Persistent energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict have kept euro area headline inflation at 3.3% in August 2026, well above the ECB’s 2% target, prompting a data-dependent tightening cycle with the deposit facility rate at 2.25% and markets pricing a near-certain 25 basis point hike at the September 10 meeting plus potential further increases. Recent Governing Council communications emphasize monitoring second-round effects and underlying inflation dynamics without pre-committing to any easing path, supporting the 95.5% market-implied odds against a rate cut this year as trader consensus aligns with resilient growth and elevated price risks. Tail scenarios that could alter outcomes include swift geopolitical de-escalation sharply lowering energy costs or an unexpected growth contraction forcing earlier policy relief.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
6% संभावना
$32,434 वॉल्यूम
$32,434 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
6% संभावना
$32,434 वॉल्यूम
$32,434 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict have kept euro area headline inflation at 3.3% in August 2026, well above the ECB’s 2% target, prompting a data-dependent tightening cycle with the deposit facility rate at 2.25% and markets pricing a near-certain 25 basis point hike at the September 10 meeting plus potential further increases. Recent Governing Council communications emphasize monitoring second-round effects and underlying inflation dynamics without pre-committing to any easing path, supporting the 95.5% market-implied odds against a rate cut this year as trader consensus aligns with resilient growth and elevated price risks. Tail scenarios that could alter outcomes include swift geopolitical de-escalation sharply lowering energy costs or an unexpected growth contraction forcing earlier policy relief.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$32,434समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict have kept euro area headline inflation at 3.3% in August 2026, well above the ECB’s 2% target, prompting a data-dependent tightening cycle with the deposit facility rate at 2.25% and markets pricing a near-certain 25 basis point hike at the September 10 meeting plus potential further increases. Recent Governing Council communications emphasize monitoring second-round effects and underlying inflation dynamics without pre-committing to any easing path, supporting the 95.5% market-implied odds against a rate cut this year as trader consensus aligns with resilient growth and elevated price risks. Tail scenarios that could alter outcomes include swift geopolitical de-escalation sharply lowering energy costs or an unexpected growth contraction forcing earlier policy relief.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$32,434समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Persistent energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict have kept euro area headline inflation at 3.3% in August 2026, well above the ECB’s 2% target, prompting a data-dependent tightening cycle with the deposit facility rate at 2.25% and markets pricing a near-certain 25 basis point hike at the September 10 meeting plus potential further increases. Recent Governing Council communications emphasize monitoring second-round effects and underlying inflation dynamics without pre-committing to any easing path, supporting the 95.5% market-implied odds against a rate cut this year as trader consensus aligns with resilient growth and elevated price risks. Tail scenarios that could alter outcomes include swift geopolitical de-escalation sharply lowering energy costs or an unexpected growth contraction forcing earlier policy relief.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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