Republican incumbent Aaron Bean, seeking reelection in Florida's solidly conservative 4th Congressional District, commands trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability, reflecting his strong 2024 victory margins, district's Republican lean, and historical low turnover for incumbents in safe seats. Recent bolstering includes President Trump's February endorsement and Bean's $240,000 Q1 fundraising haul, outpacing Democratic challenger Michael Kirwan despite the latter's March nod from ex-Rep. Al Lawson. With August 18 primaries approaching, Kirwan's 13.5% odds underscore Democrats' uphill path amid limited polling and Florida's GOP dominance in North Florida battlegrounds like Jacksonville suburbs. Late scandals or national midterm waves could shift dynamics, but current positioning favors continuity.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाFL-04 House Election Winner
FL-04 House Election Winner
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Republican Party
83%
Democratic Party
14%
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Republican Party
$4,498 वॉल्यूम
83%
Democratic Party
$2,834 वॉल्यूम
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Aaron Bean, seeking reelection in Florida's solidly conservative 4th Congressional District, commands trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability, reflecting his strong 2024 victory margins, district's Republican lean, and historical low turnover for incumbents in safe seats. Recent bolstering includes President Trump's February endorsement and Bean's $240,000 Q1 fundraising haul, outpacing Democratic challenger Michael Kirwan despite the latter's March nod from ex-Rep. Al Lawson. With August 18 primaries approaching, Kirwan's 13.5% odds underscore Democrats' uphill path amid limited polling and Florida's GOP dominance in North Florida battlegrounds like Jacksonville suburbs. Late scandals or national midterm waves could shift dynamics, but current positioning favors continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$7,332समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Aaron Bean, seeking reelection in Florida's solidly conservative 4th Congressional District, commands trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability, reflecting his strong 2024 victory margins, district's Republican lean, and historical low turnover for incumbents in safe seats. Recent bolstering includes President Trump's February endorsement and Bean's $240,000 Q1 fundraising haul, outpacing Democratic challenger Michael Kirwan despite the latter's March nod from ex-Rep. Al Lawson. With August 18 primaries approaching, Kirwan's 13.5% odds underscore Democrats' uphill path amid limited polling and Florida's GOP dominance in North Florida battlegrounds like Jacksonville suburbs. Late scandals or national midterm waves could shift dynamics, but current positioning favors continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$7,332समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Aaron Bean, seeking reelection in Florida's solidly conservative 4th Congressional District, commands trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability, reflecting his strong 2024 victory margins, district's Republican lean, and historical low turnover for incumbents in safe seats. Recent bolstering includes President Trump's February endorsement and Bean's $240,000 Q1 fundraising haul, outpacing Democratic challenger Michael Kirwan despite the latter's March nod from ex-Rep. Al Lawson. With August 18 primaries approaching, Kirwan's 13.5% odds underscore Democrats' uphill path amid limited polling and Florida's GOP dominance in North Florida battlegrounds like Jacksonville suburbs. Late scandals or national midterm waves could shift dynamics, but current positioning favors continuity.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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