Former Rep. Elaine Luria dominates trader consensus at 84.5% implied probability to win the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, driven by her prior incumbency, unmatched name recognition in the military-heavy district, and dominant Q1 2026 fundraising exceeding $1.75 million with over $2 million cash-on-hand reported early April. Her inclusion in the DCCC's Red to Blue program in late February and recent New Democrat Coalition endorsement further bolster her position amid a crowded field. James Osyf trails at 7.5% despite past campaign suspension talks, while Matt Strickler, Burk Stringfellow, Patrick Mosolf, Nila Devanath, and Nicolaus Sleister share low-single digits due to limited resources and visibility; late scandals or a high-profile dropout could shift dynamics before the filing deadline.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाElaine Luria 86%
James Osyf 7.5%
Matt Strickler 4.0%
Burk Stringfellow 3.9%
Elaine Luria
86%
James Osyf
8%
Matt Strickler
4%
Burk Stringfellow
4%
Patrick Mosolf
2%
Nila Devanath
1%
Nicolaus Sleister
1%
Elaine Luria 86%
James Osyf 7.5%
Matt Strickler 4.0%
Burk Stringfellow 3.9%
Elaine Luria
86%
James Osyf
8%
Matt Strickler
4%
Burk Stringfellow
4%
Patrick Mosolf
2%
Nila Devanath
1%
Nicolaus Sleister
1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 25, 2025, 4:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Former Rep. Elaine Luria dominates trader consensus at 84.5% implied probability to win the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, driven by her prior incumbency, unmatched name recognition in the military-heavy district, and dominant Q1 2026 fundraising exceeding $1.75 million with over $2 million cash-on-hand reported early April. Her inclusion in the DCCC's Red to Blue program in late February and recent New Democrat Coalition endorsement further bolster her position amid a crowded field. James Osyf trails at 7.5% despite past campaign suspension talks, while Matt Strickler, Burk Stringfellow, Patrick Mosolf, Nila Devanath, and Nicolaus Sleister share low-single digits due to limited resources and visibility; late scandals or a high-profile dropout could shift dynamics before the filing deadline.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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