Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82% implied probability for at least 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30 per IMF Portwatch data, reflecting recent upticks with over 20 commercial vessels reported passing unscathed in the last 24 hours via Iranian-permitted corridors, alongside U.S. destroyer transits on April 11—the first since conflict escalation. This tempers the geopolitical risk premium baked into Brent crude futures, trading around $95 per barrel after peaking above $100 earlier this month, while VLCC charter rates from the Persian Gulf exceed $400,000 per day and war risk insurance premiums hit 1-5% of vessel value. Ongoing U.S. blockade enforcement and daily IMF transit calls through April 30 remain key swing factors for resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या __ जहाज अप्रैल के अंत तक किसी भी दिन होर्मुज जलडमरूमध्य से गुज़रेंगे?
क्या __ जहाज अप्रैल के अंत तक किसी भी दिन होर्मुज जलडमरूमध्य से गुज़रेंगे?
$399,315 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
20+
71%
40+
47%
60+
37%
80+
26%
$399,315 वॉल्यूम
20+
$168,539 वॉल्यूम
71%
40+
$63,759 वॉल्यूम
47%
60+
$64,027 वॉल्यूम
37%
80+
$103,089 वॉल्यूम
26%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82% implied probability for at least 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30 per IMF Portwatch data, reflecting recent upticks with over 20 commercial vessels reported passing unscathed in the last 24 hours via Iranian-permitted corridors, alongside U.S. destroyer transits on April 11—the first since conflict escalation. This tempers the geopolitical risk premium baked into Brent crude futures, trading around $95 per barrel after peaking above $100 earlier this month, while VLCC charter rates from the Persian Gulf exceed $400,000 per day and war risk insurance premiums hit 1-5% of vessel value. Ongoing U.S. blockade enforcement and daily IMF transit calls through April 30 remain key swing factors for resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$399,315समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82% implied probability for at least 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30 per IMF Portwatch data, reflecting recent upticks with over 20 commercial vessels reported passing unscathed in the last 24 hours via Iranian-permitted corridors, alongside U.S. destroyer transits on April 11—the first since conflict escalation. This tempers the geopolitical risk premium baked into Brent crude futures, trading around $95 per barrel after peaking above $100 earlier this month, while VLCC charter rates from the Persian Gulf exceed $400,000 per day and war risk insurance premiums hit 1-5% of vessel value. Ongoing U.S. blockade enforcement and daily IMF transit calls through April 30 remain key swing factors for resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
वॉल्यूम
$399,315समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82% implied probability for at least 20 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30 per IMF Portwatch data, reflecting recent upticks with over 20 commercial vessels reported passing unscathed in the last 24 hours via Iranian-permitted corridors, alongside U.S. destroyer transits on April 11—the first since conflict escalation. This tempers the geopolitical risk premium baked into Brent crude futures, trading around $95 per barrel after peaking above $100 earlier this month, while VLCC charter rates from the Persian Gulf exceed $400,000 per day and war risk insurance premiums hit 1-5% of vessel value. Ongoing U.S. blockade enforcement and daily IMF transit calls through April 30 remain key swing factors for resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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