Recent polling from institutes such as Real Time Big Data and Paraná Pesquisas shows Dr. Furlan (PSD) holding a substantial first-round lead over incumbent Clécio Luís (União Brasil), driven by strong regional support in Macapá and Santana amid ongoing coalition-building ahead of the October 2026 vote. Trader pricing remains more compressed because multiple candidates, including Carlos Cley and others, retain pathways through party alliances, potential runoff dynamics, and undecided voter blocs that could shift in the final weeks. PT backing for Clécio adds institutional weight, yet Furlan’s consistent double-digit margins in stimulated scenarios highlight structural advantages for the former mayor. Late campaign events, candidate withdrawals, or turnout variations in key municipalities could still widen separations reflected in current implied probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiCarlos Cley 49%
Clécio Luís 21%
Jairo Palheta 3.0%
Dr. Furlan 0
BARU
BARU
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Cley
49%
Clécio Luís
21%
Jairo Palheta
3%
Dr. Furlan
44%
Marcos Reategui
44%
Carlos Cley 49%
Clécio Luís 21%
Jairo Palheta 3.0%
Dr. Furlan 0
BARU
BARU
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Cley
$20 Vol.
49%
Clécio Luís
$20 Vol.
21%
Jairo Palheta
$20 Vol.
3%
Dr. Furlan
$20 Vol.
44%
Marcos Reategui
$20 Vol.
44%
The Amapá gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from institutes such as Real Time Big Data and Paraná Pesquisas shows Dr. Furlan (PSD) holding a substantial first-round lead over incumbent Clécio Luís (União Brasil), driven by strong regional support in Macapá and Santana amid ongoing coalition-building ahead of the October 2026 vote. Trader pricing remains more compressed because multiple candidates, including Carlos Cley and others, retain pathways through party alliances, potential runoff dynamics, and undecided voter blocs that could shift in the final weeks. PT backing for Clécio adds institutional weight, yet Furlan’s consistent double-digit margins in stimulated scenarios highlight structural advantages for the former mayor. Late campaign events, candidate withdrawals, or turnout variations in key municipalities could still widen separations reflected in current implied probabilities.
The Amapá gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 17, 2026, 5:31 AM ET
Volume
$100Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 17, 2026, 5:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Amapá gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from institutes such as Real Time Big Data and Paraná Pesquisas shows Dr. Furlan (PSD) holding a substantial first-round lead over incumbent Clécio Luís (União Brasil), driven by strong regional support in Macapá and Santana amid ongoing coalition-building ahead of the October 2026 vote. Trader pricing remains more compressed because multiple candidates, including Carlos Cley and others, retain pathways through party alliances, potential runoff dynamics, and undecided voter blocs that could shift in the final weeks. PT backing for Clécio adds institutional weight, yet Furlan’s consistent double-digit margins in stimulated scenarios highlight structural advantages for the former mayor. Late campaign events, candidate withdrawals, or turnout variations in key municipalities could still widen separations reflected in current implied probabilities.
The Amapá gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$100Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 17, 2026, 5:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from institutes such as Real Time Big Data and Paraná Pesquisas shows Dr. Furlan (PSD) holding a substantial first-round lead over incumbent Clécio Luís (União Brasil), driven by strong regional support in Macapá and Santana amid ongoing coalition-building ahead of the October 2026 vote. Trader pricing remains more compressed because multiple candidates, including Carlos Cley and others, retain pathways through party alliances, potential runoff dynamics, and undecided voter blocs that could shift in the final weeks. PT backing for Clécio adds institutional weight, yet Furlan’s consistent double-digit margins in stimulated scenarios highlight structural advantages for the former mayor. Late campaign events, candidate withdrawals, or turnout variations in key municipalities could still widen separations reflected in current implied probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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