The closely matched probabilities between a 25 basis point hike (47.5%) and no change (44.5%) in the December FOMC decision highlight ongoing uncertainty in the inflation trajectory and labor market resilience. Recent CPI and employment data releases have shown persistent price pressures alongside moderating job gains, keeping the market-implied rate path balanced between further tightening and a pause. Trader sentiment reflects the gap between current Fed guidance and forward-looking indicators, with Treasury yields and volatility measures underscoring divided views on whether growth will warrant additional policy adjustment. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC statement, October CPI, and November nonfarm payrolls, which could shift the consensus ahead of the year-end meeting.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui25 bps increase 48%
No change 45%
25 bps decrease 7.6%
50+ bps increase 1.7%
$455,201 Vol.
$455,201 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
8%
No change
45%
25 bps increase
48%
50+ bps increase
2%
25 bps increase 48%
No change 45%
25 bps decrease 7.6%
50+ bps increase 1.7%
$455,201 Vol.
$455,201 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$75,056 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$98,986 Vol.
8%
No change
$71,807 Vol.
45%
25 bps increase
$124,252 Vol.
48%
50+ bps increase
$85,099 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The closely matched probabilities between a 25 basis point hike (47.5%) and no change (44.5%) in the December FOMC decision highlight ongoing uncertainty in the inflation trajectory and labor market resilience. Recent CPI and employment data releases have shown persistent price pressures alongside moderating job gains, keeping the market-implied rate path balanced between further tightening and a pause. Trader sentiment reflects the gap between current Fed guidance and forward-looking indicators, with Treasury yields and volatility measures underscoring divided views on whether growth will warrant additional policy adjustment. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC statement, October CPI, and November nonfarm payrolls, which could shift the consensus ahead of the year-end meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$455,201Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The closely matched probabilities between a 25 basis point hike (47.5%) and no change (44.5%) in the December FOMC decision highlight ongoing uncertainty in the inflation trajectory and labor market resilience. Recent CPI and employment data releases have shown persistent price pressures alongside moderating job gains, keeping the market-implied rate path balanced between further tightening and a pause. Trader sentiment reflects the gap between current Fed guidance and forward-looking indicators, with Treasury yields and volatility measures underscoring divided views on whether growth will warrant additional policy adjustment. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC statement, October CPI, and November nonfarm payrolls, which could shift the consensus ahead of the year-end meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$455,201Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities between a 25 basis point hike (47.5%) and no change (44.5%) in the December FOMC decision highlight ongoing uncertainty in the inflation trajectory and labor market resilience. Recent CPI and employment data releases have shown persistent price pressures alongside moderating job gains, keeping the market-implied rate path balanced between further tightening and a pause. Trader sentiment reflects the gap between current Fed guidance and forward-looking indicators, with Treasury yields and volatility measures underscoring divided views on whether growth will warrant additional policy adjustment. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC statement, October CPI, and November nonfarm payrolls, which could shift the consensus ahead of the year-end meeting.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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