Market-implied odds concentrate on a 27–29°C high for Istanbul on August 6 because ensemble forecasts and climatological data place early-August maxima near the long-term average of 28°C, with limited signals for strong anomalies. Recent observations show slightly elevated readings, including a 33°C peak on August 4, yet models indicate stabilizing northeasterly flow and typical Black Sea influence that moderate extremes. Ensemble spread remains modest, supporting the narrow 48% weighting on 28°C, while lower probabilities for 30°C+ reflect the low historical frequency of such outliers this early in the month. Updated short-range runs from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF expected within 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 6?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 6?
28°C 49%
27°C 27%
29°C 24%
26°C 3%
BARU
BARU
Aug 6, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
3%
27°C
27%
28°C
49%
29°C
24%
30°C
3%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
1%
28°C 49%
27°C 27%
29°C 24%
26°C 3%
BARU
BARU
Aug 6, 2026
22°C or below
$382 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$402 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$145 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$31 Vol.
1%
26°C
$79 Vol.
3%
27°C
$213 Vol.
27%
28°C
$610 Vol.
49%
29°C
$136 Vol.
24%
30°C
$45 Vol.
3%
31°C
$57 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$31 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds concentrate on a 27–29°C high for Istanbul on August 6 because ensemble forecasts and climatological data place early-August maxima near the long-term average of 28°C, with limited signals for strong anomalies. Recent observations show slightly elevated readings, including a 33°C peak on August 4, yet models indicate stabilizing northeasterly flow and typical Black Sea influence that moderate extremes. Ensemble spread remains modest, supporting the narrow 48% weighting on 28°C, while lower probabilities for 30°C+ reflect the low historical frequency of such outliers this early in the month. Updated short-range runs from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF expected within 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 4, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$2,131Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 6, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 4, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds concentrate on a 27–29°C high for Istanbul on August 6 because ensemble forecasts and climatological data place early-August maxima near the long-term average of 28°C, with limited signals for strong anomalies. Recent observations show slightly elevated readings, including a 33°C peak on August 4, yet models indicate stabilizing northeasterly flow and typical Black Sea influence that moderate extremes. Ensemble spread remains modest, supporting the narrow 48% weighting on 28°C, while lower probabilities for 30°C+ reflect the low historical frequency of such outliers this early in the month. Updated short-range runs from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF expected within 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,131Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 6, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 4, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds concentrate on a 27–29°C high for Istanbul on August 6 because ensemble forecasts and climatological data place early-August maxima near the long-term average of 28°C, with limited signals for strong anomalies. Recent observations show slightly elevated readings, including a 33°C peak on August 4, yet models indicate stabilizing northeasterly flow and typical Black Sea influence that moderate extremes. Ensemble spread remains modest, supporting the narrow 48% weighting on 28°C, while lower probabilities for 30°C+ reflect the low historical frequency of such outliers this early in the month. Updated short-range runs from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF expected within 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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