Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF points to a maximum of 31–32°C in Shenzhen on September 14 amid partly cloudy to overcast skies and scattered showers that could limit surface heating. Historical September averages near 31–32°C provide context, but the 24–48 hour forecast hinges on precise timing of convective clouds and rainfall, which several runs show arriving midday and potentially capping peaks near 30–31°C or allowing brief clearing to reach 32°C. This narrow spread explains the tight market-implied probabilities across 30–32°C outcomes, with traders weighting the latest ensemble guidance on boundary-layer moisture and insolation. Updated runs from monitoring agencies are likely to refine these variables ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Shenzhen on September 14?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 14?
31°C 31%
32°C 26%
30°C 22%
29°C 19%
BARU
BARU
Sep 14, 2026
25°C or below
3%
26°C
3%
27°C
3%
28°C
16%
29°C
19%
30°C
22%
31°C
31%
32°C
26%
33°C
10%
34°C
6%
35°C or higher
8%
31°C 31%
32°C 26%
30°C 22%
29°C 19%
BARU
BARU
Sep 14, 2026
25°C or below
$0 Vol.
3%
26°C
$0 Vol.
3%
27°C
$0 Vol.
3%
28°C
$0 Vol.
16%
29°C
$0 Vol.
19%
30°C
$0 Vol.
22%
31°C
$5 Vol.
31%
32°C
$103 Vol.
26%
33°C
$6 Vol.
10%
34°C
$108 Vol.
6%
35°C or higher
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF points to a maximum of 31–32°C in Shenzhen on September 14 amid partly cloudy to overcast skies and scattered showers that could limit surface heating. Historical September averages near 31–32°C provide context, but the 24–48 hour forecast hinges on precise timing of convective clouds and rainfall, which several runs show arriving midday and potentially capping peaks near 30–31°C or allowing brief clearing to reach 32°C. This narrow spread explains the tight market-implied probabilities across 30–32°C outcomes, with traders weighting the latest ensemble guidance on boundary-layer moisture and insolation. Updated runs from monitoring agencies are likely to refine these variables ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$221Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF points to a maximum of 31–32°C in Shenzhen on September 14 amid partly cloudy to overcast skies and scattered showers that could limit surface heating. Historical September averages near 31–32°C provide context, but the 24–48 hour forecast hinges on precise timing of convective clouds and rainfall, which several runs show arriving midday and potentially capping peaks near 30–31°C or allowing brief clearing to reach 32°C. This narrow spread explains the tight market-implied probabilities across 30–32°C outcomes, with traders weighting the latest ensemble guidance on boundary-layer moisture and insolation. Updated runs from monitoring agencies are likely to refine these variables ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$221Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 14, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF points to a maximum of 31–32°C in Shenzhen on September 14 amid partly cloudy to overcast skies and scattered showers that could limit surface heating. Historical September averages near 31–32°C provide context, but the 24–48 hour forecast hinges on precise timing of convective clouds and rainfall, which several runs show arriving midday and potentially capping peaks near 30–31°C or allowing brief clearing to reach 32°C. This narrow spread explains the tight market-implied probabilities across 30–32°C outcomes, with traders weighting the latest ensemble guidance on boundary-layer moisture and insolation. Updated runs from monitoring agencies are likely to refine these variables ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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